000 AXNT20 KNHC 022358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Western Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends from a 1004 mb low that is rapidly deepening just off the North Carolina coast near 24N77W. The tight pressure gradient between the low, frontal boundary, and high pressure ridging to the southeast of these features has induced gale force southwest winds ahead of the front north of about 29N, with resultant seas to around 10 ft. The gale force winds will diminish to strong winds this evening, by 03/0000, as the low quickly tracks northeastward and rapidly intensifies through tonight. The cold front will lose its punch as it moves across the western section of the area through Wednesday. However, strong west to northwest winds behind the front will continue before diminishing to fresh winds tonight. Seas will also lower to less than 8 ft. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 00N18W. The ITCZ continues from 00N18W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along the area where the ITCZ and monsoon trough meet, from 05N-03S between 11W-24W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N- 08S between 24W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front enters the Gulf from near Fort Meyers, FL to 24N90W and continues from that point as a stationary front in the Bay of Campeche to near Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico. There is also a pre- frontal trough in the eastern Gulf that extends from 26N82W to 24N83W. Additionally, a trough extends from the stationary front in the Bay of Campeche to the mouth of the Rio Grande, from 26N97W to 22N95W. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are seen south of the cold front in the eastern Gulf just off the southwest Florida coast. There are also light showers and clouds moving across the western and northern Gulf. Scatterometer data shows winds between light and gentle out of the north-northeast. In the western Gulf, winds are moderate to fresh out of the north- northeast. In the Bay of Campeche, the western portion has moderate to fresh north- northwest winds, with light to gentle westerly winds for the rest of the basin. The cold front will continue to move southeast and exit the basin tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will slide east across the southern United States Wednesday and Thursday. Moderate east winds over the Gulf on Wednesday will veer to SE and become moderate to fresh for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A subtropical jet stream stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean east-northeast to the north-central Caribbean and to the northeastern Caribbean. To the south of this jet stream branch, a moist atmosphere is present at the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Scattered to broken low-level clouds are moving quickly westward in the trade wind flow. Some of these may contain isolated showers, with the exception of the area from 16N to 18N and between 63W and 76W, where a large patch of low clouds with scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms is noted. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the eastern and central Caribbean. Light to gentle trades are seen in the northwest Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south-central Caribbean through Saturday night, pulsing to near gale force at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through Saturday night, except fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Wednesday night, and in the Gulf of Honduras Saturday night. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The cold front enters the waters at 31N77W and extends southwestward into Melbourne, FL. Showers and thunderstorms are seen along and ahead of the front west of 70W. A cluster of thunderstorms are also moving southward across the northern islands of the Bahamas. See the Special Features section above for details on ongoing gale force winds west of the cold front. Elsewhere, another cold front enters the waters near 31N53W and extends to 29N55W. From 29N55W, a trough begins at that point and stretches to 24N60W. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm on either side of the cold front. Another trough if to the north of the Greater Antilles, from 24N63W to 20N67W. Very light, isolated showers are seen with these troughs. A trough is also seen to the west of the Canary Islands, from 30N21W to 28N24W. This trough is associated with a mid-upper level low. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are observed with this trough. Along the Canary Islands, there is a trough nestled in the middle from 29N15W to 23N19W. Clouds with light showers are associated with this trough. The front will move east of the forecast waters through mid week. High pressure will build off the Carolinas in the wake of the front, then shift east of the area through late week ahead of another low pressure and front moving off the Carolinas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR