000 AXNT20 KNHC 021803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low just offshore the southeastern U.S. coast near 32N79W to across north-central Florida. The tight pressure gradient between the low and front and high pressure ridging to the southeast of these features has induced gale force southwest winds ahead of the front north of about 29N, with resultant seas to around 10 ft. The gale force winds will diminish to strong winds this afternoon as the low quickly tracks northeastward and rapidly intensifies through tonight. The cold front will lose its punch as it moves across the western section of the area through Wed, however, strong west to northwest winds behind the front will continue into this afternoon before diminishing to fresh winds tonight, and seas will lower to less than 8 ft. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N18W, where scatterometer data from this morning indicated that the ITCZ begins and continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 360 nm either side of the monsoon trough and also within 360 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 18W and 27W, and also within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 27W and 30W. Similar convection is within 30 nm either side of a line from 06S26W to 06S30W and within 02S30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is analyzed from Tampa, Florida to 26N86W and to 24N90W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bay of Campeche and to just inland Mexico near Comalcalco. Latest satellite imagery shows broken to scattered low clouds along and within 60 nm north of the cold front. Areas of rain along with scattered showers are probable along and near the cold front. Overcast to broken low and mid-level clouds with possible areas of light rain are confined to the SW Gulf south of 24N and west of the stationary front. A trough extends from just west of the cold front at 83W and extends to 24N85W. Isolated showers are possible near this trough. Another trough extends from just west of the stationary front north-northwestward to just southeast of Brownsville, Texas. Yet another trough extends from near 24N88W to inland the Yucatan Peninsula at 21N90W. The satellite imagery shows generally mostly clear skies north of 27N, where high pressure ridges southwestward from a 1024 mb high located over eastern Louisiana. Mostly clear skies are over the extreme southeastern Gulf. Both buoy data and latest scatterometer data indicate moderate north to northeast winds to the northwest of the stationary and cold fronts. As for the latest forecast for Gulf: The cold front will continue to move southeastward exiting the basin this evening. The aforementioned high pressure ridging will slide eastward across Wed through and Thu. Moderate east winds over the Gulf Wed will veer to the southeast on Thu and become moderate to fresh in speeds. These winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A subtropical jet stream stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean east-northeast to the north-central Caribbean and to the northeastern Caribbean. To the south of this jet stream branch, a moist atmosphere is present at the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Scattered to broken low-level clouds are moving quickly westward in the trade wind flow. Some of these may contain isolated showers, with the exception of the area from 16N to 18N and between 71W and 76W, where a large patch of low clouds with scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms is noted. In summary, rather quiet conditions continue as moisture at the low-level is rather limited. Gentle trades are seen across the eastern and northwestern Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are north of Colombia. High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds across the south-central portions through Sat night, pulsing to near gale force at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will remain cross the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to the west of 55W through Sat night, except fresh to strong winds across the approach to the Windward Passage Wed night, and in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. A moderate northeast swell will begin to propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters on Thu and continue into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 15Z, low pressure of 1013 mb is analyzed near 32N79W, with a cold front extending from it southwestward to inland Florida near Daytona Beach. A warm front extends from the low eastward to 32N73W and southeastward to near 31N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with frequent lightning are occurring within 30 nm of a line from 30N76W to well north of the warm front. The low pressure will quickly pull away from the area as it rapidly intensifies through tonight. See the Special Features section above for details on ongoing gale force winds south of the low and east of the cold front. With the low tracking northeastward along with the supporting mid/upper-level trough, the aforementioned cold front will weaken as it moves across the western part of the area through Wed. A weak trough extends from near 31N53W to 21N61W. Another trough extends from near 22N65W to 19N66W. Only isolated showers are possible with these troughs. Over the far eastern Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is near 31N19W, with a trough to 28N26W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from mainly upper-level instability are northwest of this trough and low. High pressure building in behind the above mentioned cold front will shift to the central Atlantic by Fri in response to another low pressure system and associated cold front forecast to move off the Carolinas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre