000 AXNT20 KNHC 021058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 657 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front over the West Atlantic will move east across the basin while northerly winds strengthen to near-gale force behind the front. Near-gale force winds are noted north of 30N and west of 78W. Gale warning continues into Tuesday afternoon with seas ranging from 8-11 ft. These conditions will continue through Tuesday night, 03/0000 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 04S35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01S-06N between 11W-22W and from 04S-00N between 22W-29W. Another cluster of scattered moderate strong convection is noted from the Equator to 02N between 02W-08W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped from the eastern Gulf to the southern Bay of Campeche. The front enters the Gulf from Tampa Bay, FL near 27N82W and stretches westward to 24N90W to a 1017 mb low pres 21N94W, then the stationary front continues south to the Bay of Campeche 18N93W. Showers are along and about 100 nm ahead of the front. There are several surface troughs in the analysis. Starting with a trough in the Panhandle of FL from 30N86W to 28N86W. Second trough extends from 27N95W to 23N95W. South of the 1017 mb low pressure, a third trough is southeast of the low 21N93W to 20N91W. Another trough is observed from 23N87W into the Yucatan Peninsula. Light showers and overcast skies are seen on satellite across the northern and western Gulf. North of the front, ASCAT shows moderate to fresh north-northeast winds. Areas of dense fog have develop in central Florida near the Lake Okeechobee. South of the front, southerly light to gentle winds are observed. Generally clear conditions are seen south of the front. A surface trough is seen from 23N87W into the Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front extends from near Sarasota Florida to across the central Gulf near 26N88W to low pres near 18N94W continuing to Mexico near 18N94W. The front will begin to move SE and exit the basin through the rest of today. High pres following the front will slide E across the southern United States Wed and Thu. Moderate E winds over the Gulf Wed will veer to SE and become moderate to fresh for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are seen moving northeast off the coast of Costa Rica and Panama into the southwest and central Caribbean. These showers are also moving across Hispaniola and north of Puerto Rico. Otherwise, benign conditions prevail as strong subsidence is over the Caribbean due to a mid-upper level ridge. Gentle trades are seen across the eastern and northwestern Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are north of Colombia. High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across S central portions through Sat night, pulsing to near gale force at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Sat night, except fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Wed night, and in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a 1016 mb low pressure is located near 30N80W and a second low is further east near 30N77W. A stationary front extends south near Palm Beach, FL near 27N79W. A trough also extended south of this low to 25N80W. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are seen northeast of the warm front and to the east of the front. A warm front continues east along 30N, then transitions to a cold front to 30N67W. A surface trough is observed from 31N52W to 25N57W. Scattered showers area seen in the vicinity of the boundary. A 1012 mb low pressure is further east near the Canary Island 26N20W with a trough extending south west to 21N24W. A dissipating front extends northeast from the low to 31N14W and connects to a occluded front north of the area. Scattered showers are near the vicinity of the two boundaries into the Canary Islands. A cold front extends from 31N67W to low pres near 30N77W to another low pres near 27N80W. Gale force winds are in the N semicircle of the low. This low will dissipate while new low pres rapidly develops and intensifies N of the area SE of the Carolinas. That low will drag a cold front across the Bahamas this afternoon through early Wed, with additional gale force winds this afternoon. High pres following the front will build over the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. A weak low and front may develop over the NW waters by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres