000 AXNT20 KNHC 020602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front over the West Atlantic will move east across the basin while northerly winds strengthen to near-gale force behind the front. Recent scatterometer data shows near-gale force winds behind the 1016 mb low north of 30N between 78-80W. Gale warning will be in effect early tonight, Tuesday 02/0600. Conditions will prevail into Tuesday afternoon with seas ranging from 8-11 ft. These conditions will continue through Tuesday night, 03/0000 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 00N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 06S34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from the Equator to 04N between 15W-21W and from 04N-06N between 12W-16W. Another cluster of scattered moderate strong convection is 180 nm north and south of the ITCZ between 22W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped from the eastern Gulf to the southern Bay of Campeche. The front enters the Gulf south of Tampa Bay, FL near 27N82W and stretches westward to 24N90W to a 1014 mb low pres 22N94W, then the stationary front continues south to the Bay of Campeche 18N93W. A trough also extends from the stationary front to just off the Deep South Texas Coast from 26N96W to 23N95W. Showers are along and about 100 nm ahead of the front. Meanwhile, light showers and overcast skies are seen on satellite across the northern and western Gulf. North of the front, ASCAT shows moderate to fresh north-northeast winds. South of the front, southerly light to gentle winds are observed. Generally clear conditions are seen south of the front. A surface trough is seen from 21N85W into the Yucatan Peninsula and a second trough from 26N82W to 23N86W. A stationary front extends from near Tampa Florida to low pres 1014 mb near 23N94.5W to the coast of Mexico near 18N94W. Seas along the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico will diminish this evening. The front will begin to move SE and exit the basin by Tue night. High pres following the front will slide E across the southern United States Wed and Thu. Moderate E winds over the Gulf Wed will veer to SE and become moderate to fresh for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are seen moving northeast off the coast of Costa Rica and Panama into the southwest Caribbean. These showers are also moving across Hispaniola and north of Puerto Rico. A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pres in Colombia to 15N70W. Otherwise, benign conditions prevail as strong subsidence is over the Caribbean due to a mid-upper level ridge. Gentle trades are seen across the eastern and northwestern Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are north of Colombia. High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across S central portions through Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Fri. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a 1016 mb low pressure is located near 29N77W with a stationary front extending southwest into Melbourne Beach, FL near 27N80W. A trough also extended south of this front from 27N80W to 25N80W. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are seen northeast of the front and the trough, north of 27N and west of 75W. A warm front extends east from the low to 29N73W, then transitions into a cold front near 29N73W to 31N66W. A stationary front enters the forecast area from 31N52W to 21N61W, then dissipating to 19N65W north of Puerto Rico. Scattered showers area seen in the vicinity of boundary. A 1012 mb low pressure 31N16W extends a dissipating cold front southwest to 21N29W to 25N42W, and dissipating cold front northeast of the low to 31N14W. Scattered showers are possible in the vicinity of the boundary. Widespread showers are to the north of the Canary Islands north of 28N to 31N between 16W-18W. A nearly stationary front extending from 22N61W to 19N67W will dissipate by Tue night. A frontal boundary stretches from 31N68W to 29.5N73W to weak low pres near 30N78W to near Ft Pierce, Florida. The front will begin to lift N tonight and Tue as the low dissipates. New low pres will form and deepen rapidly along the front E of Georgia. This new low will support gale force winds over the waters N of 30N Tue afternoon and Tue night. The intense low will shift NE and drag the cold front across the Bahamas Tue afternoon through early Wed. High pres following the front will build over the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. A weak low and front may develop over the NW waters by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres