000 AXNT20 KNHC 012359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front over the West Atlantic will move east across the basin while northerly winds strengthen to near-gale force behind the front. By Tuesday 02/1800 UTC, gale-force winds are expected north of 29N between 73W-80W. Seas will range from 8-11 ft. These conditions will continue through Tuesday night, 03/0000 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 03S25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09S between 15W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped from the eastern Gulf to the southern Bay of Campeche. The front enters the Gulf south of Tampa Bay, FL near 27N82W and stretches westward to 23N94W to 18N95W. A trough also extended from the stationary front to just off the Deep South Texas Coast from 23N95W to 26N97W. Showers are along and about 100 nm ahead of the front right off the west coast of Florida. Meanwhile, light showers and overcast skies are seen on satellite across the northern and western Gulf. North of the front, ASCAT shows moderate to fresh north- northeast winds. South of the front, southerly light to gentle winds are observed. There is an area of strong winds in the southwest portion of the Bay of Campeche. Generally clear conditions are also seen south of the front. The strong winds along the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico will diminish this evening. The front will begin to move southeast and exit the basin by Tuesday night. High pressure following the front will slide east across the southern United States Wednesday and Thursday. Moderate east winds over the Gulf on Wednesday will veer to southeast and become moderate to fresh for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are seen moving northeast off the coast of Costa Rica and Panama into the southwest Caribbean. These showers are also moving across Jamaica and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, showers are seen on radar moving across Puerto Rico. Otherwise, benign conditions prevail as strong subsidence is over the Caribbean due to a mid-upper level ridge. Gentle trades are seen across the eastern and northwestern Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are north of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds across the south-central portions of the basin through Wednesday. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through Friday. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front enters the waters near 31N70W and stretches southwest into Melbourne Beach, FL near 28N80W. A trough also extended north of this front from 28N79W to 30N80W. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are seen north of the front, north of 29N and west of 71W. Another cold front also enters the waters near 31N53W to 22N61W. From 22N61W, the tail end of the boundary stalls from that point to 20N67W. A pre-frontal trough is east of the front from 26N56W to 21N61W. Another trough is also behind the front entering the waters near 31N56W to 26N62W to 27N68W. Light showers are along the cold front and stationary front in addition to the pre- frontal trough. Near the Canary Islands, a 1012 mb low is well north of the islands near 34N18W with a dying occlusion and cold front. However, a cold front that is pushing across the central portion of the islands extends westward into a 1012 mb near 27N21W. From this low, the cold front continues to extend westward to 27N43W. Widespread showers are to the north of the islands with with scattered showers along the front moving eastward across the area. The cold front located off the east coast of Florida will stall and begin to lift north tonight and Tuesday as low pressure deepens rapidly along the front east of Georgia. This low will support gale force winds over the waters north of 30N by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. See above for more detail. The intense low will shift northeast and drag the cold front across the Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday. High pressure following the front will build over the waters north of the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the stationary front from 22N61W to 20N67W will begin dissipating tonight. A weak low and front may develop over the northwest waters by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR