000 AXNT20 KNHC 011737 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 137 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front over the West Atlantic will move east across the basin, northerly winds will strengthen to near-gale force behind the front. By Tuesday 02/1500 UTC, gale-force winds are expected north of 29N between 73W-79.5W. Seas will range from 8-11 ft. These conditions will continue through Tuesday night 03/0600 UTC. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 02S23W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10S between 15W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 01/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from S of Melbourne Florida near 28N80.5W to Sarasota Florida near 27N83W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W. A stationary front continues to 23N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94.5W. 15-25 kt NE winds are N of front. 10 kt S winds are S of front. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida, N of front and E of 88W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the E Bay of Campeche from 22N91W to 18N91W. The trough does not have any showers but is depicted by a wind shift. In the upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Broken to overcast upper level clouds are over the NE Gulf. The front will meander through this evening then begin to move SE and exit the basin by Tue night. High pres following the front will slide E across the southern United States Wed and Thu. Moderate E winds over the Gulf Wed will veer to SE and become moderate to fresh for the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of n Colombia, and the weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. A surface trough is over the NE Caribbean from 21N63W to N of the Virgin Islands near 19N65W to 16N65W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Scattered showers are also over the SW Caribbean from 12N-16N between 79W-84W to include E Honduras and NE Nicaragua. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean N of 12N, suppressing deep convection. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across S central portions through Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Fri. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N72W to S of Melbourne Florida near 28N80.5W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 26N71W. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N55W to 23N60W. Isolated moderate convection is E of the front N of 23N between 48W-55W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N17W to 27N25W to 26N40W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N15W to 23N30W to 24N40W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front E of 30W. The remnants of an old frontal boundary N of the Leeward Islands will gradually merge with a westward drifting surface trough across the Virgin Islands during the next few days. W Atlantic cold front will stall today and begin to lift northward late this afternoon and evening as low pres deepens rapidly along the front E of Georgia. This low will support gale force winds over the waters N of 30N Tue midday through Tue night. The low will shift NE and deepen further, then drag the cold front across the Bahamas Tue afternoon through early Wed. High pressure following the front will build over the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. A weak low and front may develop over the NW portion by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa