000 AXNT20 KNHC 312359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends from 30N85W to 25N94W to 20N97W and will continue moving slowly southeast across the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Gale-force winds are noted over the west Gulf S of 25N and west of the front. Seas are between 8 to 13 ft in this area. These conditions will prevail through tonight. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...West Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will enter the West Atlantic on Monday morning. As the front moves east across the basin, northerly winds will strengthen to near-gale force behind the front. By Tuesday morning, gale-force winds are expected north of 30N between 79W- 80W. Seas in this are will range from 9-11 ft. These conditions will continue through early Wednesday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of the equator and west of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the southwest Gulf waters. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 25N94W to Tampico Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf of Mexico north of the front. Strong to near-gale northerly winds prevail north of 25N and west of front, while east light to gentle winds are noted southeast of the front. The front will stall from Tampa Bay to the western Yucatan Peninsula by Monday morning and transition back to a cold front on Tuesday morning as a low pressure develops along the front just off the coast of Georgia. The front will move off the southeast gulf waters Tuesday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds over the Yucatan Channel. Low-topped showers are noted across the Greater Antilles. In the upper levels, zonal flow and strong subsidence is suppressing deep convection. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong east winds near the coast of Colombia at night beginning tonight. Winds speeds in this area will increase to near gale force by Wednesday as a stronger ridge moves north of the area. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 28N73W. To the east, an occluded 1012 mb low is centered near 30N62W. This low and frontal system are weakening quickly. A cold front extends from 32N56W to 24N60W, then becomes stationary to 19N68W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm east of the cold front. A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 31N43W. A 1017 mb surface low is centered near 31N25W with cold front extending along 31N. The frontal system across the w-central Atlantic will weaken and dissipate by Monday, leaving a surface trough that will move west supporting showers across the southern waters through the middle of the week. A weak ridge follows this front ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast tonight. Strong to near-gale force winds will follow the front, which will stall over the north-central waters by Monday afternoon. A low pressure developing off the coast of Georgia will rapidly deepen along the front and support an area of gale-force winds over the NW and north-central waters on Tuesday. Refer to the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA