000 AXNT20 KNHC 311806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... As of 31/1500 UTC, a strong cold front from 30N83W to 24N96W to 21N97W is moving slowly southeast across the NW Gulf of Mexico today. Gale-force winds are over the west Gulf S of 25N W of front. Seas are between 8 to 13 ft. These conditions will prevail until tonight. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 01S20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N-07S between 16W-37W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-03S between 37W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 31/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N83W to the W Gulf near 24N96W to Tampico Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf of Mexico N of 26N between 91W-98W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. N of 25N and W of front winds are NE 20-30 kt. Winds E of front are 10 kt or less. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 18N94W depicted by a wind shift. Elsewhere, fair weather is over the Florida Peninsula and the far E Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will extend from northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by tonight. Gale-force winds are presently over Tampico Mexico adjacent waters and will be over Veracruz adjacent waters, and the Gulf of Campeche, by tonight. Expect building seas to 13 ft. The front will stall from Tampa Bay to the western Yucatan Peninsula by Mon morning and transition back to a cold front on Tue morning as a low pressure develops along the front just off the coast of Georgia. The front will move off the SE gulf waters Tue evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail-end of a stationary front extends from the Atlantic near 24.5N60W to E Hispaniola near 19N69W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. The Caribbean Sea has 10-20 kt tradewinds with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over the Leeward Islands, E Cuba, and along the coasts of Costa Rica and W Panama. In the upper levels, zonal flow and strong subsidence is suppressing deep convection. The stationary front will weaken and dissipate by Mon, leaving a surface trough that will support showers over the NE Caribbean through the middle of the week. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia at night beginning tonight. Winds at night along the coast of Colombia will increase to near gale force by Wed as a stronger ridge moves N of the area. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 28N73W. A 1012 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30N63W. A cold front extends from 31N58W to 24.5N60W. A stationary front continues to E Hispaniola near 19N69W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of the cold front. A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 31N42W. Over the W Atlantic, the stationary front will weaken and dissipate by Mon, leaving a surface trough that will move west supporting showers across the southern waters through the middle of the week. A weak ridge follows this front ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the NE Florida coast this evening. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front, which will stall over the north-central waters by Mon early in the afternoon. A low pressure developing off the coast of Georgia will rapidly deepen along the front and support an area of gale force winds over the NW and north-central waters on Tue. The low will drag a cold front that will move across the Bahamas Tue afternoon through early Wed. High pres will build across the SW N Atlantic, in the wake of the front Wed and Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa