000 AXNT20 KNHC 310600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front is entering the northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce gale- force winds over the west central Gulf Sunday afternoon at 31/1500 UTC from 22N to 25N W of front. Seas are expected to range between 8 to 11 ft. These conditions will prevail through early Monday. This front is forecast to reach the western Atlantic on Monday and has the potential to produce gale force winds over the waters near Nof 29N and W of 68W as a low develops along the front. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate scattered strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough from the Equator to 03N between 09W- 15W, and along the ITCZ 05S-03N between 15W-30W with additional scattered showers and thunderstorm activity near the coast of Brazil. Cluster of scattered strong convection is concentrated near 02S-00N between 20W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Cold front has moved off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf early this evening stretching from 29N94W to 27N97W. Surface ridging is being suppress as the front makes its way south/southeast across the Gulf. Ridge from the western Atlantic extends into the eastern Gulf coast. The latest ASCAT pass depicts light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf ahead of the front, while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western and central Gulf south of 24N to the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level subsidence continues to suppress significant convection over the central and eastern Gulf. A cold front moving off the Texas coast this evening is forecast to reach a position from Panama City to 27N90W to Tampico, Mexico near 22N97W by Sun morning, then stall just S of Tampa Bay to 25N90W to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon morning. Strong to near gale force N winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Gulf on Sun. Winds will reach minimal gale force near Tampico Sun and near Veracruz Sun night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through Tue exits to the SE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from west Puerto Rico south of Hispaniola near 17N71W to southern Jamaica near 16N77W. Scattered low-topped showers are within 100 nm north of the trough from western Puerto Rico across Hispaniola into Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are also along the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean, except north of Colombia where locally fresh to strong winds prevail. Upper level zonal flow and subsidence continues to suppress significant convection. Weak high pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia at night through Sun night. A stronger ridge will arrive N of the area on Mon, thus resulting in fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean during the day and near gale force winds at night along the coast of Colombia through the middle of next week. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlc W of 55W through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N64W. An associated cold front enters the area near 31N58W to 23N60W to west Puerto Rico near 18N66W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 51W-58W. A broad 1029 mb high centered near 30N41W covers much of the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front extending from 31N58W to Puerto Rico near 18N66W will shift slowly E and eventually dissipate NE of Puerto Rico Mon. High pressure will pass to the NE of the Bahamas in the wake of the front Sun and Mon. The next cold front will move off the NE Florida coast by Mon morning, then stall. Rapidly deepening low pres along the front will support an area of gale force winds over the waters N of 29N and W of 68W Tue night. High pres will build over the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres