000 AXNT20 KNHC 302329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 729 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico this evening. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce gale- force winds over the west Gulf Sunday afternoon at 31/1800 UTC from 22N to 25N W of front. Seas are expected to range between 8 to 11 ft. These conditions will prevail through early Monday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 15W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored over the western Atlantic. The latest ASCAT pass depicts light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, while moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western Gulf. Upper level subsidence continues to suppress significant convection. A cold front will move off the Texas coast this evening. The front is forecast to reach from Panama City to 27N90W to Tampico, Mexico near 22N97W by Sunday morning, then stall just S of Tampa Bay to 25N90W to the central Gulf of Campeche by Monday morning. Strong to near gale force northerly winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Gulf on Sunday. Winds are forecast to reach gale-force strength across the west-central Gulf by Sunday afternoon, and across the SW Gulf by Sunday evening. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through Monday as the front shifts and weakens southeast of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from east Hispaniola near 19N69W to southern Jamaica near 17N78W. Scattered low-topped showers are within 60 nm north of the trough. Scattered showers are also along the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean, except south of Cuba where locally fresh winds prevail. Upper level zonal flow and subsidence continues to suppress significant convection. The surface trough will dissipate tonight. Weak high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. A stronger ridge will move north of the area on Monday with fresh to strong winds during the day and near-gale force winds at night through the middle of the week. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low is centered over the west Atlantic near 29N65W. An associated cold front enters the area near 31N59W to 23N61W to 19N68W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 25N between 50W-60W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low to 28N68W. A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N38W. The cold front will gradually stall tonight as the low pressure continues to move northeast of the area, allowing winds and seas to diminish accordingly. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the low through Sunday. The next cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by Sunday night. A strong ridge behind the front will support the development of gale-force winds north of 29N between 75W and 78W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA