000 AXNT20 KNHC 301029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 629 AM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by this evening. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce gale- force winds over the west-central Gulf by Sunday afternoon, 01/0000, and across the southwest Gulf by Sunday night. Seas are expected to be 9 to 13 ft. These conditions will prevail through early Monday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W to 03S25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 130 nm north of the ITCZ between 11W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high that is centered over the western Atlantic. A trough is off the coast of Florida that extends from 29N85W to 24N83W. Scattered showers are occurring near this trough from the Florida Panhandle southward to the west of Florida Keys. Otherwise, the latest ASCAT pass shows light to gentle east- northeast winds are occurring in the eastern portion of the basin, with moderate to fresh east- southeast winds in the western and southwestern Gulf. Mid to upper level ridging continues to suppress significant convection. High pressure will shift east today ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast this evening. The front is forecast to reach a position from northern Florida to the central Bay of Campeche on Sunday evening, and extend from southern Florida to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N90W on Monday evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front over the western Gulf on Sunday. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with occasional strong gusty winds, are expected along and near the front as it sweeps across the basin. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through early next week as the front shifts to the southeast of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends from western Haiti near 18N74W into the central Caribbean near 16N79W. Scattered low-topped showers are occurring along this feature and into most of Hispaniola and near Puerto Rico. Showers are also moving off of Panama into the southern Caribbean. Light to gentle trades continue across the majority of the basin with gentle to moderate trades winds in the southeast Caribbean. Off the southwest coast of Cuba, there are moderate to fresh northeasterly winds. The trough extending into the central Caribbean will dissipate today. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia at night beginning Sun night, with seas building in the 8 to 10 ft range during the period of the strongest winds. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An occluded system continues to move through the western Atlantic. A 1011 mb low is centered near 30N65W with an occluded front stretching northeast from the low. From the occlusion, a cold front enters the waters near 31N61W and stretches to the south near 21N65W. From that point, the tail end of the boundary becomes stationary and stretches into the northern Dominican Republic. Showers and thunderstorms are noted along and east of the front west of 56W. A trough stretches south from the low from 30N65W to 23N71W. Isolated showers are seen along this trough. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1028 mb high near 31N38W. A 1015 mb low continues to remain near the Canary Islands near 29N15W. Showers are diminishing in coverage but isolated activity still continue near this low across the islands. The cold front will gradually stall and weaken through tonight as the low pressure continues to move northeast of the area, allowing winds and seas to diminish accordingly. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the low through Sunday, then continues east ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by Sunday night. A low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary near 30N77W by Monday night. Gale conditions could be possible across the north waters between the low and high pressure over the Carolinas Monday night, and again Tuesday night as the low pressure deepens just north of area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR