000 AXNT20 KNHC 300553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 AM EDT Sat Mar 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce gale-force winds over the waters east of Veracruz and Tampico by Sunday afternoon. Seas are expected to be 9 to 13 ft. These conditions will prevail through early Monday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 14N48W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 13W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high that is centered over the West Atlantic. Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds are noted in scatterometer data through most of the area. Fresh winds are noted across the western Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf. Mid to upper level ridging continues to suppress significant convection at this time. However, light showers are moving northeast just off the southwest Florida coast and isolated showers near the eastern Gulf Coast. High pressure is expected to shift east on Saturday ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast Saturday night. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front Sunday over the western Gulf, possibly reaching gale force over the western Gulf waters from Tampico to Veracruz Sunday night. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, and some with strong gusty winds, are expected along and near this upcoming cold front that will sweep across the basin. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through early next week as the front shifts to the southeast of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends from southern Haiti near 18N73W into the central Caribbean near 16N79W. Scattered low-topped showers are occurring along this feature and into most of Hispaniola in addition to Puerto Rico. Showers are also moving off of Panama and Colombia into the southern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades continue across the majority of the basin with light to gentle winds in the central Caribbean. The trough will dissipate tonight. Winds over the south central Caribbean will range between moderate and fresh through early next week. Otherwise, generally moderate trade winds will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An occluded system continues to move through the western Atlantic. A 1015 mb low is centered near 25N66W with an occluded front stretching northeast from the low. From the occlusion, a cold front enters the waters near 31N63W and stretches to the south near 21N66W. From that point, the tail end of the boundary becomes stationary and stretches into the northern Dominican Republic. Showers and thunderstorms are noted along and east of the front west of 54W. A trough behind the front is also observed from 27N65W to 25N75W. Showers are seen along this trough. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high near 32N37W. A 1017 mb low continues to remain near the Canary Islands near 29N17W. Scattered showers are observed near this low. The cold front will continue to stall and weaken through Saturday night. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast through Sunday, then continue east ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast on Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR