000 AXNT20 KNHC 292342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 741 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. The pressure gradient behind the front will induce gale-force winds over the waters east of Veracruz and Tampico by Sunday afternoon. These conditions will prevail through early Monday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N13, where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and continues to south of the Equator at 15W, to 05S30W and to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W- 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high that is centered over the West Atlantic. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are noted in scatterometer data through the whole area. Mid to upper level ridging continues to suppress significant convection at this time. As for the forecast, the surface ridge will shift eastward on Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast by that night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front on Sunday over the western Gulf, reaching gale-force speeds over the west-central Gulf on Sunday night. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, are expected along and near this upcoming cold front that will sweep across the basin. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through early next week as the front shifts to the southeast of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from southwest Haiti to near 15N79W with scattered showers. Scattered low-topped showers are also spreading across Hispaniola and to the east of Puerto Rico. Gentle to moderate trades will continue across the majority of the basin through early next week, except for light to gentle trades in the central Caribbean from 12N-18N between 70W-80W. The stationary front will dissipate through tonight. Little overall changes are expected through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system prevails across the west Atlantic. A 1015 mb low is centered near 29N65W, with cold front extending from it to 23N66W to 20N69W. Another 1015 mb surface low is centered near 20N70W. A surface trough extends from the low to 26N72W. Scattered showers are noted along and east of the front mainly west of 55W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N38W. A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the far east Atlantic near 30N17W, with trough extending from the low to 30N28W. Scattered showers prevail within the low. The frontal system will weaken through Saturday. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast through Sunday, then continue E ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the NE Florida coast by early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA