000 AXNT20 KNHC 291805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N12, where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and continues to south of the Equator at 15W, to 05S20W and to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of a line from 04N13W to 03N20W to 02N25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 02N25W to 02N30W and also within 30 nm of 01N34W. Similar activity is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 34W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high is centered over southern Georgia near 32N83.5W. From this high, ridging extends southwest across the basin. Showers continue to move off the coast of Texas and into the western Gulf. Otherwise, gentle to moderate easterly winds are seen across the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan and between the Yucatan and Cuba. Mid to upper level ridging continues to suppress convection across the Gulf. As for the forecast, the high pressure ridging will shift eastward on Sat ahead of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front on Sun over the western Gulf, possibly reaching to gale force speeds over the west-central Gulf on Sun night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, are expected along and near this upcoming cold front that will sweep across the Gulf. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through early next week as the front shifts to the southeast of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from southwest Haiti to near 15N79W, where it begins to dissipate to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W. A trough, just ahead of the front, is across the Dominican Republic along a line from near 20N68W to 18N71.5W. Isolated showers are occurring along and within about 60 nm northwest of this boundary. Showers are also spreading across Hispaniola and to the east of Puerto Rico. Farther south, showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving into the Caribbean along the Nicaragua and Costa Rica border, including the immediate coastal waters. Gentle to moderate trades will continue across the Caribbean and tropical through early next week, except for light to gentle trades in the central Caribbean and much of the northwestern Caribbean sections. Fresh winds are off the northern Colombian coast. Because of the mid to upper level ridge dominating the region, subsidence is suppressing convection. The stationary front will dissipate through tonight. Little overall changes are expected through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the discussion area at 32N61.5W and extends southwestward to 28N65W, where it transitions to a warm front to a 1014 mb weak low near 27N68W. From this low, a cold front extends southward to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W where it begins to weakens as it extends further southwestward across southeastern Haiti. The majority of the earlier observed scattered moderate convection has lifted northward to along and north of 31N and between 53W and 68W, however, scattered showers and thunderstorms are out ahead of the cold front, and south of the stationary front from 22N to 30N between 59W and 65W. This activity is forecast to slide eastward over the next coupled of days as the low lifts to the northeast in tandem with the deep layer low that is located near 31N68W. It will also lift to the northeast. Broad cyclonic wind flow around the low is spreading pockets of low-level moisture along with isolated showers west- southwestward toward the Bahamas and coastal waters of mainly southern and central Florida. The aforementioned cold front will gradually slow down and become stationary tonight. By early Sat, the low is forecast to be near 30N62W with a pressure of 1015 mb. The stationary front is expected to transition to a trough at that time and extend from the low to near the eastern part of Hispaniola. By early on Sun, the low is forecast to reach near 32N62W, with the trough extending from it to just north of Puerto Rico. The low will have lifted north of the area, and possibly merge with a trough well north of the area by late Sun night. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the low through Suny, then continue to build east ahead of the next cold front, that is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast early next week. Otherwise, a 1029 mb high pressure system centered near 32N37W continues to ridge across the waters east of the above described fronts and low pressure A 1016 mb weak low is west-northwest of the Canary Islands near 29N19W. A trough extends from it west- northwestward to near 30N28W and east-northeast from the low to near 30N19W. Isolated showers are seen within 120 nm of the low in the NE semicircle and within 60 nm of the low in the SW semicircle. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre