000 AXNT20 KNHC 291040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 05S24W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03S-11S between 25W-40W. Isolated convection is observed from 04N-00N between 12W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is centered over southeast Georgia near 31N82W. From this high, surface riding extends southwest across the basin. Showers continue to move off the coast of Texas and into the western Gulf. Otherwise, gentle to moderate easterly winds are seen across the Gulf with moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan and between the Yucatan and Cuba. Mid to upper level ridging continues to inhibit convection. High pressure will shift east Saturday ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast Saturday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front Sunday over the western Gulf, possibly reaching gale force over the west central Gulf Sunday night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through early next week as the front shifts southeast of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends southwest from southwestern Hispaniola near 18N74W to central Nicaragua near 13N83W. Showers are occurring within 50 nm of this boundary. Showers are also spreading across Hispaniola and to the east of Puerto Rico. Farther south, showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving into the Caribbean along the Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the southern and northwestern portions of the Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, light to gentle trades are observed. Fresh winds are off the northern Colombian coast. Because of the mid to upper level ridge dominating the region, subsidence is suppressing convection. The stationary front will dissipate through today. Elsewhere, generally moderate trade winds will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the waters near 31N61W and extends southwest into a 1014 mb low near 27N70W. From this low, a cold front extends south to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the low and frontal boundary from north of 66W between 57W-70W. Isolated showers are also moving southwestward between the Bahamas and South Florida. Otherwise, a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 33N36W is ridging across most of the south Atlantic waters. A 1016 mb low west of the Canary Islands near 29N20W is aiding in producing showers within 200 nm of the islands. The cold front will gradually stall and weaken through today as the low continues to move northeast of the area, allowing winds and seas to diminish accordingly. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the low through Sunday, then continue east ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR