000 AXNT20 KNHC 281805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A gale is underway off the northeast coast of Florida associated with a southward moving gale low near 26N74W. The frequent gale force gusts remains north of 26N and west of 75W with seas 15-18 ft. The gale is forecast to continue until 28/1500 UTC. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of the monsoon trough 03N-02N to 17W-14W. Scattered moderate conditions are present in the vicinity of the ITCZ 180 nm north and south of the boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along the coastal waters of Brazil from 08S to the Equator and west of 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure in the Southeast Plains continues to spread across the entire basin keeping fair weather across the region. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE to E winds across the eastern and central portion of the basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the western Gulf, with moderate to fresh northeasterly winds in the SW Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish today over the eastern Gulf. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas. Gale conditions could be possible behind the front across the west- central Gulf Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is pushing south across the northwest Caribbean from the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica near 17N76W to the Gulf of Honduras to Belize near 16N88W. Showers are within 100 nm of the front and are moving south into Honduras along with Belize, and Nicaragua. Showers are also seen across the central Caribbean ahead of the front. Scattered showers are also moving across Puerto Rico and the eastern Caribbean along the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across the southern Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades across the northern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are observed behind the front across NW Caribbean west of Jamaica near 78W. A cold front reaching from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras will stall late today before dissipating through late Fri. Elsewhere generally moderate trade winds will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The stationary front enters the waters near 31N58W and extends westward near 27N74W to a 1012 mb low near 26N74W. From this low, the cold front continues to extend southward across the eastern Bahamas into the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the frontal boundary from 24N-29N between 67W-70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend further south 260 nm north of the center of the low. Additionally, a trough is west of the low pressure to the north of the Bahamas near 28N78W. Farther east, a broad 1030 mb high pressure is in control of much of the basin. A stationary front extends from 27N65W to 1012 mb low pressure near 26N74W with cold front to 20N74W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish today as the low pressure slowly weakens as it drifts E toward 26N65W through late Fri. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the front through Sun, then move east ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres