000 AXNT20 KNHC 281049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 649 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A gale is underway off the northeast coast of Florida associated with a southward moving gale low near 27N77W. The gale is presently north of 27N and west of 68W with seas 15-18 ft. The gale is forecast to continue until 28/1800 UTC. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 01S25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N- 11S and west of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front continues to slowly push south across the southwest Gulf of Mexico from the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W to south of Tampico, Mexico near 21N97W. Isolated showers are seen across the southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging continues to spread across the entire basin with some showers moving into the western Gulf off the Texas and northern Mexican coast. Fresh to strong north- northeasterly winds are across the eastern portion of the basin. Gentle to moderate east- southeasterly winds are in the western Gulf, with moderate to fresh northeasterly winds in the SW Gulf. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through today over the eastern Gulf following the cold front. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Sunday followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas. Gale conditions could be possible behind the front across the west- central Gulf by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is pushing south across the northwest Caribbean from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to northern Belize near 18N88W. Showers are within 100 nm of the front and are moving south into the Gulf of Honduras along with Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua. Showers are also seen across the central Caribbean ahead of the front. A trough extends from a 1013 mb low between western Hispaniola and Jamaica near 18N75W. Showers are seen near this low and along the trough throughout Hispaniola. Scattered showers are also moving across Puerto Rico and the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle trades are seen across the northeast Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades across the southern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are north of Colombia. Near the front, gentle to moderate northerly winds are north of the boundary with light to gentle east-southeast winds are south of the boundary. The cold front will stall from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late today before dissipating through late Friday. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish through today. Elsewhere, generally moderate trade winds will persist across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The cold front enters the waters near 31N60W and extends westward near 26N69W to a 1013 mb low near 27N76W. From this low, the cold front continues to extend southward across the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen 100 nm near the low and along the frontal boundary west of 70W. Additionally, a trough is along the southeast Florida coast where scattered showers are moving south into South Florida. There is also a pre- frontal trough that extends from 28N63W to a 1013 mb low in the Caribbean near 18N75W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm west of this trough and the cold front east of 56W. Across the rest of the basin, surface ridging extends throughout the area to the Lesser Antilles. Farther east, a trough is just off the coast of Morocco and is producing showers moving inland. There is also scattered showers northeast of the Canary Islands. Gale conditions and very rough seas will prevail N of 27N and W of 75W through this morning. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as the low pressure slowly weakens as it drifts E toward 26N65W through late Friday. The front will stall through late Friday from the low pressure to the Windward Passage then dissipate through Saturday. High pressure will build off the U.S. east coast in the wake of the front through Sunday, then move east ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR