000 AXNT20 KNHC 280556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A gale is underway off the northeast coast of Florida associated with a southward moving gale low near 28N77W. The gale is presently north of 29N W of 77W with seas 10-18 ft. The gale is forecast to continue until 28/1800 UTC. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to 02S19W to 02S29W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-02N between 14W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08S and west of 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front is over the southwest Gulf of Mexico from the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W to north of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. Isolated showers are seen across the central portion of the Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging continues to spread across the entire basin with some showers beginning to enter the western Gulf off the Texas coast. Moderate to fresh north- northeasterly winds are across the eastern portion of the basin. Gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds are in the western Gulf, with light winds in the southwest Gulf. The cold front is expected to dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf through Thursday. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Sunday followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas. Gale conditions could be possible behind the front across the west- central Gulf by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is seen across the northwest Caribbean from central Cuba near 21N78W to northern Belize near 18N88W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front particularly in the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are also streaming across eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and west-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, showers continue across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico with isolated showers across the Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the eastern Caribbean, with fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds north of Colombia. Near the front, winds are gentle to moderate out of the north behind the front, with east-southeast light to gentle winds ahead of it. Strong subsidence continues across the Caribbean with mid to upper level ridging which is suppressing deep convection. High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia through Thursday morning, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. The cold front will stall and dissipate on Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the waters near 31N64W and extends westward into a 1013 mb low pressure near 28N77W. From this low, the cold front continues to extend southward across the central Bahamas and into central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and near the front, north of 24N and west of 67W. A surface trough to the east of this front extends from 34N56W to 23N67W. Scattered moderate convection continues within 200 nm east of this feature due to upper level diffluence. Across the rest of the basin, surface ridging extends throughout the area to the Lesser Antilles. A 1017 mb low is centered north of the Canary Islands near 33N15W which is generating showers east of 24W and right off the coast of Morocco. The low pressure will drift southeast toward 27N77W by Thursday morning. Gale conditions and very rough seas will prevail N of 27N and W of 75W through Thursday morning along with frequent gusts to gale force off the coast of eastern Florida. The low pressure will slowly weaken Thursday night into Friday as it moves eastward along the front while the front will dissipate over the SE waters on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR