000 AXNT20 KNHC 271755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Frequent wind gusts to gale force are underway off the northeast coast of Florida behind a southward moving cold front. The gale force winds will continue today through the evening hours. The front extends from a low pressure near 27N79W Palm Beach, Florida. Expect these conditions to expand southward toward the Atlantic waters to NW Bahamas by late Wednesday. Seas of 10 to 14 ft are expected through Thursday in the waters east of Florida and north of the Bahamas. Winds and seas should begin to diminish by late Thursday or early Friday as the front and low pressure drift slowly eastward. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W to 01N16W. The ITCZ continues from 01N16W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is north of the ITCZ from 10N-02N between 16W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted off the Brazil coastline and along the ITCZ from 08S-00N and west of 24W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is sinking southward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. This front extends from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula west to 23N96W, then it continues as a stationary front into Mexico near 24N97W. Scattered showers are possible within 60 nm of the front particularly in the southeastern Gulf. A surface trough behind the front stretches from the western Atlantic across Clearwater, Florida near 27N82W to 27N84W. Scattered showers and thunderstorm are developing along the vicinity of the trough. A 1030 mb high pressure is building across the northern Gulf with fresh to strong winds across the eastern portion of the basin. Gentle winds are south of the front, with light to gentle winds in the western Gulf along the Texas coast. A cold front over the southern Gulf waters will continue to shift S, moving southeast of the area late today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf through Thu. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Cold front extending from a 1013 mb low pressure over the NW Bahamas enters the NW Caribbean waters today. Scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh winds ahead of the front from NW Cuba to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers extend 90 nm south of the front. Scattered showers are also moving across the Greater Antilles. Isolated showers are west of the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds cover portion of the eastern Caribbean and a moderate to fresh trades cover most of the central Caribbean south of 15N to the coast of Colombia. High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia through tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late today, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the waters near 31N65W and extends westward to a 1013 mb low pressure near 26N79W and connects to another front south to NW Cuba. A surface trough is also just off the Florida coast between 29N76W to 27N80W. Showers and thunderstorms are moving southward off the Florida coast 60 nm southeast of the boundary. Some of the storms are producing a waterspouts and strong gusty winds up to 34 knots near the coast of Florida. Farther east, a surface trough enters the waters from 31N59W to Hispaniola near 19N70W. To the east of the trough, unstable conditions along with ample low-level convergence and upper- level divergence are enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms 180 nm east of the trough axis. Gale force winds will prevail today and tonight north of the Bahamas and off the coast of NE Florida behind the cold front near the Florida coast. The front will stall from 26N65W to the Windward Passage through Fri, then dissipate through late Sat. Winds and seas will diminish through late week as the low pressure weakens as it moves eastward along the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Torres