000 AXNT20 KNHC 271048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Frequent wind gusts to gale force are underway off the northeast coast of Florida behind a southward moving cold front. This front extends from 31N68W to Melbourne, Florida. Expect these conditions to expand southward toward the Atlantic waters near South Florida and the NW Bahamas by late Wednesday as low pressure develops along the front near the NW Bahamas. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are expected Wednesday and Thursday in the waters east of Florida and north of the Bahamas. Winds and seas should begin to diminish by late Thursday or early Friday as the front and low pressure drift slowly eastward. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 03S27W to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is north of the ITCZ from 05N-01N between 16W-21W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is also noted off the Brazil coastline along the ITCZ from 04N-08N and west of 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is sinking southward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. This front extends from Punta Gorda, Florida to the Mexican coast near 24N98W. Scattered showers are seen within 60 nm of the front particularly in the southeastern Gulf. Off the north- central Florida coast, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms are entering the waters and are moving south toward the Tampa Bay area. Behind the front, high pressure is building across the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh north winds are observed across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the front, with light to gentle winds in the western Gulf along the Texas coast. The cold front will continue to shift south across the Gulf waters and southeast of the area late today. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds over the eastern Gulf through Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens there. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Sunday followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers continue moving across the northern portion of the basin. Scattered showers are also moving across central and eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and across Hispaniola. Isolated showers are west of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades cover most of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds continue across the northwest Caribbean with moderate winds between Cuba and the Yucatan. High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia through tonight, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late today, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the waters near 31N68W and extends westward near Melbourne, Florida. A surface trough is also just off the Florida coast. Showers and thunderstorms are moving southward off the Florida coast from 32N-29N and west of 76W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are moving right along the cold front and across the northern Bahamas west of 75W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N64W to 20N73W. To the east of the trough, unstable conditions along with ample low-level convergence and upper-level divergence are enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 31N-23N and west of 60W. Mid to upper level ridging is centered over the south Atlantic, with surface riding stretching over most of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure near 41N39W. Scattered showers are off the northern coast of Morocco due to a strengthening low pressure system in the far NE Atlantic near Morocco and the Strait of Gibraltar. Low pressure will develop near the northern Bahamas along the cold front. Winds will increase to gale force today and tonight north of the Bahamas and off the coast of NE Florida. The front will stall from 26N65W to the Windward Passage through Friday, then dissipate through late Saturday. Winds and seas will diminish through late week as the low pressure weakens as it moves westward along the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR