961 AXNT20 KNHC 270549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Frequent wind gusts to gale force is currently off the northeast coast of Florida behind a southward moving cold front, which extends from 31N70W to Cocoa Beach Florida. Expect these conditions to expand southward toward the Atlantic waters near South Florida and the NW Bahamas by late Wed as low pressure develops along the front near the NW Bahamas. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are expected Wednesday and Thursday in the waters east of Florida and north of the Bahamas. Winds and seas should begin to diminish by late Thursday or early Friday as the front and low pressure drift slowly eastward. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 03S28W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. A small area of scattered moderate convection is seen near the point where the monsoon trough and ITCZ meet. There is also scattered moderate to isolated convection seen along and 400 nm south of the ITCZ just off the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is sinking southward across the central Gulf of Mexico. The front stretches from just south of Tampa Bay Florida to just south of Brownsville Texas. Isolated showers are near and ahead of the front within 60 nm. High pressure ridging is building into the northwest Gulf behind the front. Moderate to fresh north winds are north of the front with moderate winds over the Gulf south of the front. The cold front will continue to shift south across the Gulf waters then push southeast of the area on Wednesday. Expect fresh to strong north to northeast winds over the eastern Gulf Wednesday through Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens there. The next cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Saturday night followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over Cuba and Hispaniola as shown by satellite loops of total precipitable water. Isolated showers are over the eastern Caribbean, just west of the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades cover much of the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle winds across the northwest Caribbean. High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia through Wednesday night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. A cold front will reach the northwest Caribbean on Wednesday, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through the latter part of the week. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front over the NW Caribbean Wednesday and Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W to Cocoa Beach Florida. A surface trough is analyzed over central Florida, extending into Georgia. Broad mid to upper level troughing also covers the southeast U.S. and western Atlantic. A surface trough is along 67W from 31N to northern Dominican Republic. To the northeast of the trough, unstable conditions along with ample low-level convergence and upper-level divergence are enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 31N-21N between 59W-66W. Farther east, a dissipating cold front and stationary front extends from enters the area near 26N35W to 27N46W to 29N53W. Isolated showers are near the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend from the coast of Morocco to 300 nm offshore Morocco north of 32N due to a strengthening low pressure system in the far NE Atlantic near Morocco and the Strait of Gibraltar. The cold front will shift southeast on Wednesday. A low pressure will develop along the front to the north or northeast of the northwest Bahamas late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas. Winds and seas diminish later in the week as the front and low pressure drift slowly eastward. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR