000 AXNT20 KNHC 262324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 724 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Strong to near gale force winds will develop this evening, with frequent gusts to gale force, off the northeast coast of Florida behind a southward moving cold front, which extends from 32N74W to Cape Canaveral Florida. Expect these conditions to expand southward toward the Atlantic waters near South Florida and the NW Bahamas by late Wed as low pressure develops along the front near the NW Bahamas. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are expected Wed and Thu in the waters east of Florida and north of the Bahamas. Winds and seas should begin to diminish by late Thu or early Fri as the front and low pressure drift slowly eastward. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 04S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Isolated to scattered areas of moderate convection are seen within 270 nm north and within 540 nm south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axes between the coast of Africa and the coast of South America. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is noted farther west just inland and near the coast of NE Brazil from 04S-00N between 46W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is sinking southward across the central Gulf of Mexico. The front stretches from Tampa Bay Florida to Brownsville Texas. Isolated showers are near and ahead of the front east of 89W and west of 93W, with clearer conditions between 89W-93W. High pressure ridging is building into the NW Gulf behind the front. Moderate to fresh N winds are north of the front, with moderate winds over the Gulf south of the front. The cold front will continue to shift S across the Gulf waters, then push southeast of the area Wed. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds over the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu as the pressure gradient tightens there. Then expect moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf by late week. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night followed by fresh to strong NE winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over Cuba and Hispaniola due to afternoon heating combined with sufficient moisture in the region, as shown by satellite loops of total precipitable water. Isolated showers are over the eastern Caribbean, just west of the Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh trades cover much of the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle winds across the northwest Caribbean. High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia into mid week. Winds will diminish mid to late week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean Wed, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N74W to Cape Canaveral Florida. A pre-frontal trough extends from 32N71W to near the NW Bahamas. North of the front, a surface trough is analyzed over the Florida Peninsula, extending into Georgia. Broad mid to upper level troughing also covers the southeast U.S. and western Atlantic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the east coast of Florida and Atlantic waters west of 79W. Similar activity is observed north of 28N between 70W-79W. A surface trough is along 70W from 20N-27N. To the northeast of these aforementioned weather features, unstable conditions along with ample low-level convergence and upper-level divergence are enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 22N-32N between 60W-70W. Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 32N33W to 27N37W to 27N46W, and extends as a stationary front to 28N54W, dissipating to 28N60W. Isolated showers are near the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extend from the coast of Morocco to 180 nm offshore Morocco north of 29N due to a strengthening low pressure system in the far NE Atlantic near Morocco and the Strait of Gibraltar. The cold front off the NE Florida coast will move south Wed, then shift eastward later this week. Near gale conditions with frequent gusts to gale force are expected northwest of the front tonight through early Thu. See section above for details. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Friday into the early part of the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen