000 AXNT20 KNHC 261757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 157 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A strong cold front off the northeast Florida coast will bring strong northerly winds with frequent gale force winds over the Florida east coastal waters tonight through Thursday. Expect NE winds 20 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to Gale force N of 29N W of 79W. Seas will build 8 to 12 ft. Low pressure will develop along the front northwest of the Bahamas late Wednesday into Thursday. The front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through Friday. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 01S between 09W to 22W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 02N to 02S between 25W to 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is sinking southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The front stretches from Apalachicola Fl westward into Corpus Christi TX. Along and ahead of the front, showers are seen on both satellite and radar within 100 nm of the front. Showers are also moving off the south Texas and northeast Mexican coast entering into the western Gulf. A surface trough ahead of the front extends across the peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico near 27N82W to 26N83W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough along the central Florida coast. Gentle to moderate north-northeast winds are observed through most of the basin. Ahead of the approaching cold front, winds are light to gentle out of the south-southeast. A cold front from N Florida to SE Texas will continue to shift across the Gulf, then push southeast of the area Wed. Expect moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf by late week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous showers are moving across and south of Hispaniola. Scattered showers are moving east-northeast across Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades are over much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Strong winds south of 13N are near the Colombia coast and light to gentle winds are in the northwestern Caribbean. Mid to upper level ridging is centered over Central America, providing subsidence across the basin. High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia into mid week. Winds will diminish mid to late week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean Wed, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the far western portion of the discussion area, a pre-frontal trough extends just off the coast of Florida and the Straits of Florida from 31N74W to 25N80W to 23N83W. Along this trough, a line of thunderstorms is moving eastward from 31N-28N and west of 73W. Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion area at 30N34W and stretches southwest to 27N45W then it becomes stationary at that point to 28N61W. Along the cold front and the eastern portion of the stationary front, showers are within 60 nm. Otherwise, surface riding is seen across the basin. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1009 mb low is located over the Canary Islands with a surface trough extending northward to 31N13W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 50 nm of the trough. A cold front off the NE Florida coast will shift eastward. Gale conditions are expected west of the front Wed through Wed night. Low pressure will develop along the front to the north or northeast of the NW Bahamas late Wed through Thu, followed by strong to gale force northerly winds. Winds and seas diminish later in the week as the front and low pressure drift slowly eastward. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres