095 AXNT20 KNHC 261040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Atlantic Gale warning...A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast later today. Low pressure will develop along the front northwest of the Bahamas late Wednesday into Thursday. Strong northerly winds will follow with gale force winds developing by 28/1800. Seas are expected to be 10 to 15 ft in northeast swell. The front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through Friday. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 01S between 09W to 22W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is also noted along the ITCZ from 02N to 02S between 25W to 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is sinking southward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The front stretches from Apalachicola Fl westward into Corpus Christi TX. Along and ahead of the front, showers are seen on both satellite and radar within 100 nm of the front. Showers are also moving off the south Texas and northeast Mexican coast entering into the western Gulf. Scattered showers are also pushing southward along the central Florida coast. Gentle to moderate north-northeast winds are observed through most of the basin. Ahead of the approaching cold front, winds are light to gentle out of the south- southeast. The cold front will reach from southwest Florida to south Texas late today, then sweep southeast of the area on Wednesday. Expect moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf by late week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The next cold front will move south into the northwest Gulf on Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted trough extends from the Atlantic into the northern Caribbean between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola and just to the east of Jamaica from 27N72W to 17N78W. Isolated showers are continuing across the northern and western Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers are moving across and south of Hispaniola. Scattered showers are moving east- northeast across Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trades are over much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Strong winds south of 13N are near the Colombia coast and light to gentle winds are in the northwestern Caribbean. Mid to upper level ridging is centered over Central America, providing subsidence across the basin. High pressure east of Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia into mid week. The winds will diminish mid to late week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean on Wednesday, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the far western portion of the discussion area, a pre-frontal trough extends just off the coast of Florida and the Straits of Florida from 31N78W to 24N82W. Along this trough, a line of thunderstorms is moving eastward from 31N-28N and west of 76W. Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion area at 31N36W and stretches southwest to 27N49W. From 27N49W, a stationary front stretches west to 29N70W. Along the cold front and the eastern portion of the stationary front, showers are within 60 nm. An inverted trough extends from from 27N72W to 17N78W along the eastern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are to the east of the trough from 31N-22N between 59W- 66W. Otherwise, surface riding is seen across the basin. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1006 mb low is located over the Canary Islands with a dying occlusion extending east of the low into southern Morocco. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 50 nm of the low. A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast later today with gale force winds developing by 28/1800. Winds and seas diminish later in the week as the front and low pressure drift slowly eastward followed by high pressure building north of the Bahamas by Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR