000 AXNT20 KNHC 251023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 623 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 05S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm north of the ITCZ and west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb surface high centered near 30N84W. This is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the majority of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in scatterometer data across the Straits of Florida. The surface ridge will persist over the Gulf today, and shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf waters Tuesday morning. The front will sweep southward and exit the Gulf late Wednesday. Winds will become fresh to strong over the NE Gulf through Thursday as strong high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic states. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are noted over the Greater Antilles in the vicinity of a dissipating stationary front just north of the area. Drier air is over the southern Caribbean. Scatterometer data shows moderate trades over much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds S of 15N in the central Caribbean, increasing to pulsing strong winds from the coast of Colombia to 13N overnight. Fresh to strong tradewinds are expected across the south central Caribbean today, and then will be confined to near the coast of Colombia Tuesday through Thursday. A new cold front will move southward into the NW Caribbean Wednesday night, before stalling and weakening from central Cuba to Belize on Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N47W to 27N58W, transitioning to a dissipating stationary front from that point to 26N76W. Scattered showers prevail along the front. A 1024 mb high is centered near 28N46W. To the east, a 1007 mb low is centered near 29N19W, with cold front extending from the low to 22N23W to 23N36W. The stationary front will drift northward to along 27N this afternoon and gradually dissipate. A strong cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Tuesday evening. Low pressure will develop along the front to the north or northeast of the NW Bahamas late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by strong to gale force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA