000 AXNT20 KNHC 242355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W to 00N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 33W-38W, and 200 nm N of the coast of Brazil. Scattered showers are also noted between 22W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered over the west Atlantic near 32N72W. This is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds in the NE and Central Gulf. A shearline extends from the Central Bahamas westward to the SE Gulf near 23N88W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen in the proximity of the shearline with scattered convection in the vicinity of the boundary. Most of the convection is concentrated over the Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will persist over the Gulf through Mon, and shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf waters Tue. The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf through late Wed. Winds will increase to fresh to strong over the NE Gulf late Wed through Thu as strong high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic states. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 23N85W to 16N84W. A 1016 mb low is observed in the latest satellite imagery centered at 20N85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in the vicinity of the trough extending from NW Caribbean east into portions of W Cuba. Isolated showers are elsewhere over the Greater Antilles, including eastern Cuba through Puerto Rico. Drier air is over the southern and southeastern Caribbean. Scatterometer data shows moderate winds over much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds S of 15N in the central Caribbean, increasing to strong from the coast of Colombia to 13N. Portions of the NW Caribbean S of Cuba also have fresh winds. The remnants of an old frontal boundary extend E to W across the Straits of Florida, with a 1016 mb low center currently across the Yucatan Channel. Both of these features will drift westward and gradually dissipate through Mon. Elsewhere fresh to strong tradewinds are expected near the coast of Colombia through Thu. N to NE Atlantic swell will continue to spread through the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola through late today. A new cold front will move southward into the NW Caribbean Wed night, before stalling and weakening from central Cuba to Belize on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N50W to 28N63W transitioning to a dissipating front to 28N77W, then becomes stationary to 30N80W. No significant convection exists with this front. To the east, a cold front enters the area near 31N50W to 26N61W, then becomes stationary at that point to the eastern Bahamas near 23N74W. Scattered showers prevail within 60 nm of the front. Scattered showers are also seen over the central Bahamas and the Florida Straits. These showers are being enhanced by a mid-level trough just west of the area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer pass shows fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Bahamas and east of the central Bahamas, especially within 120 nm N of the stationary front. A surface trough is present east of the stationary front from 25N60W to 19N62W. No significant convection is noted near the trough. In the E Atlantic, a 1011 mb low is near 29N20W, with a cold front extending south/southwest to 24N26W to 24N33W. Strong NW to N winds prevail west of the surface low and north of the front, mainly east of 30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the front. A 1025 mb high near 29N42W is producing quiescent weather over the central Atlantic. A stationary front extending westward through the Straits of Florida will drift northward to along 25N by Mon and gradually dissipate. A strong cold front will move off the NE Florida coast early Tue. Low pressure will develop along the front to the north or northeast of the NW Bahamas late Wed through Thu, followed by strong to near gale force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres