000 AXNT20 KNHC 241726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 126 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W to 03N11W to 01N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01N15W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm N of the ITCZ between 20W-27W, and within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 27W and the coast of Brazil. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen along and near the coast of Brazil from 03S-00N between 41W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered over the west Atlantic near 34N76W. This is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds in the NE Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds in the SW Gulf. A N-S surface trough is over the NW Caribbean along 84/85W from 16N-22N. In the mid- levels, the N-S trough extends from Belize to the Yucatan Channel to southern Alabama. As a result of the surface and mid-level troughs, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the western Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf of Mexico, south of 25N between 81W-87W. A surface ridge will persist over the Gulf through Mon, then shift east ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf waters Tue. The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf through late Wed. Winds will increase to fresh to strong over the NE Gulf late Wed through Thu as strong high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic states. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends along 84/85W from 16N-22N. In the mid- levels, the N-S trough extends from Belize to the Yucatan Channel to southern Alabama. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen north of 20N between 81W-87W including over the Yucatan Channel and portions of W Cuba. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the NW Caribbean north of 20N and west of 78W. Isolated showers are elsewhere over the Greater Antilles, including eastern Cuba through Puerto Rico. Drier air is over the southern and southeastern Caribbean. Latest scatterometer data show moderate winds over much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds S of 15N in the central Caribbean, increasing to strong from the coast of Colombia to 13N. Portions of the NW Caribbean S of Cuba also have fresh winds. The surface trough in the NW Caribbean will meander and gradually dissipate through Mon. Fresh to strong tradewinds are expected near the coast of Colombia through Thu. A new cold front will move southward into the NW Caribbean Wed night, before stalling and weakening from central Cuba to Belize Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N61W to 29N68W to 28N73W to 29N79W, then becomes stationary to 30N80W, but no significant convection exists with this front. To the east, a cold front enters the area near 32N51W to 25N65W, then becomes stationary to 23N72W to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers prevail within 60 nm of the front. Scattered showers are also seen over the central Bahamas and the Florida Straits. These showers are partially being enhanced by a mid-level trough just west of the area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Latest scatterometer pass shows fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Bahamas and east of the central Bahamas, especially within 120 nm N of the stationary front. In the E Atlantic, a 1014 mb low is near 30N23W, with a small occluded front and a triple point near 30N22W. A cold front extends W from the triple point to 28N24W to 26N31W to 30N37W, and a warm front extends from 30N22W to 28N20W. Strong NW to N winds prevail west of the surface low and north of the front, mainly east of 30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 28N between 19W-24W. A 1026 mb high near 30N42W is producing quiescent weather over the central Atlantic. The stationary front from 25N65W to eastern Cuba will drift northward through tonight while dissipating. The reinforcing cold front extending from 30N65W to NE Florida will move south across the north waters before dissipating over the region late today. A third and stronger cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Tue. Low pressure may form along the front by mid week, followed by strong to near gale force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen