000 AXNT20 KNHC 241020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 620 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 350 nm north of the ITCZ between 17W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb surface high centered over the west Atlantic. This is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the whole area. Weak ridging will persist over the Gulf through Monday, then dissipate ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf waters Tuesday. The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf through late Wednesday. Winds will increase to fresh to strong over the NE Gulf late Wednesday through Thursday as strong high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic states. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shearline extends across the northwest Caribbean from 20N76W to 18N86W. Fresh northerly winds will prevail north of the shearline through tonight. Scattered showers are occurring along and west of the shearline affecting Cuba and adjacent waters. Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue pulsing at night across the waters within 90 nm north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in scatterometer data over the remainder of the basin. The shearline will dissipate today. Northerly Atlantic swell will move through the Caribbean passages east of Hispaniola through late today. A new cold front will move southward into the northwest Caribbean Wednesday night, before stalling and weakening from central Cuba to Belize Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N64W to 28N71W to 30N79W, then becomes stationary to 31N81W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N56W to 20N74W. Scattered showers prevail across the stationary front. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, tranquil weather conditions continue as surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N41W. The stationary front will dissipate today. A second front reaching from Bermuda to northeast Florida will move south and stall along 24N by late today, before dissipating over the region tonight. A third front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Tuesday. Low pressure may form along the front by mid week, followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA