000 AXNT20 KNHC 221715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W across the equator to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the monsoon trough/ ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a 1021 mb high was located over the NW Gulf near 27N94W. No deep convection or any showers are present under strong upper-level subsidence over the Gulf today. The surface winds veer clockwise around the high and are generally gentle to moderate breeze. Seas are well below 8 ft. The high and associated ridging will dominate the Gulf region over the next several days producing gentle to moderate easterly winds, except off the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late evening local effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 20 kt. A cold front will sweep into the northern Gulf waters on Tue. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from E Cuba near 20N77W to Nicaragua near 12N84W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, isolated showers are occurring over E Cuba, Haiti, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Windward Islands. N winds behind the front are moderate to fresh breeze, while E tradewinds over the remainder of the Caribbean are generally gentle to moderate. The exception, as is typical, are winds just north of Colombia, which are up to fresh to strong NE breeze as observed by a scatterometer pass this morning. Seas across the Caribbean remain below 8 ft. The cold front will drift SE and gradually dissipate today. Then, the remnants of the front, as a surface trough, will drift westward across the NW Caribbean through the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue. NE swell from the Atlantic will reach the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola by Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N58W southwestward to the central Bahamas and to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. A secondary dissipating cold front extends from 32N64W to 21N77W. A trough extends from 32N73W to 27N77W. SW winds north of 27N ahead of the cold front are up to strong breeze, while a scatterometer pass this morning showed W winds to near gale conditions north of 30N within 120 nm of the trough. Buoy 41010 north of the NW Bahamas indicate seas of 9-10 ft this morning. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, quiescent conditions prevail with surface ridging along 32N38W west- southwestward to Hispaniola. The cold fronts over the Atlantic will merge today, and the merged front will reach a position from 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Sat morning, and from 26N65W to central Cuba by Sun morning. Swell generated by these fronts will dominate the waters E of the Bahamas through the weekend. Another cold front is forecast to reach the north waters late on Tue. Strong to near gale force NE winds are expected in the wake of the front by Tue night. A low may develop along the frontal boundary on Wed with an increase in winds and seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea