000 AXNT20 KNHC 201055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ....Atlantic Gale Warning... On 20/1200 UTC, a 1012 mb low is forecast to be centered over the W Atlantic near 29N71W. A gale is forecast N of 30N between 68W and 73W with NE to E winds and seas to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 02S30W to the coast of South America near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is SE of the monsoon trough from 06N-04S between 00W-12W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-02S between 31W- 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 20/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 23N80W to a 1013 mb low near 22N83W. A stationary front continues to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N90W. A reinforcing cold front extends from S Florida near 25N80W to 24N82W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf of Mexico from W Cuba to N Florida E of 84W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the W Gulf from 24N97W to 21N95W. Scattered showers are over the W Gulf W of 94W. 15-25 kt NE winds covers the Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Gulf with axis over Mexico along 100W. A trough is over the E Gulf with axis over Florida along 80W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis over the W Atlantic enhancing showers. A tight surface pressure gradient along Florida and the NE gulf support NE strong to near gale force winds in the SE Gulf S of 25N. The front will shift SE and exit the region today. High pressure will then dominate the entire Gulf through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front has entered the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are over the far NW Caribbean N of a line from W Cuba near 22N78W to N Belize near 18N88W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the S Caribbean S of 18N with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are noted over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica, and the SW Caribbean S of 12N to include Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. A broad upper level ridge continues to sit over the Caribbean with strong subsidence suppressing convection. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia mainly due to the nocturnal drainage flow. Fresh to strong winds are also possible in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, the tail end of a stationary front extends from western Cuba SW to just N of Belize. The front will stall from central Cuba to NE Honduras adjacent waters by Thu morning and dissipate at night. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate across the remainder basin through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to a 1013 mb low E of the N Bahamas near 26N76W. A stationary front continues to the Straits of Florida near 23N80W. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N64W to S Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are over most of the W Atlantic W of 62W and N of 24N. A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N49W with ridging extending SE to the Leeward Islands. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over the W Atlantic W of 70W enhancing showers. An upper level low is centered W of the Canary Islands near 31N24W producing scattered showers N of 24N between 14W-30W. Over the W Atlantic, NE swell will propagate across the northern waters through Thu. However, swell associated with a reinforcing cold front will prevail through Sun. This second front will extend from near 25N65W to north-central Dominican Republic by Fri evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa