000 AXNT20 KNHC 200547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ....Atlantic Gale Warning... A 1015 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N74W. Strong to gale-force winds are expected across the northwest semicircle of this low this morning through tonight, with seas to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 00N16W. The ITCZ continues from 00N16W to 02S30W to the coast of South America near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is SE of the monsoon trough from 04N-04S between 00W-06W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 00N-02S between 30W- 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 20/0300 UTC, a cold front extends westward from the Straits of Florida near 23N80W to a 1014 mb low near 23N83W. A cold front continues to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N90W. A reinforcing cold front extends from S Florida near 26N80W to 24N86W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf of Mexico from W Cuba to central Florida E of 86W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the W Gulf from 26N97W to 22N96W. Scattered showers are over the W Gulf W of 95W. 15-25 kt NE winds covers the Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Gulf with axis over Mexico along 100W. A trough is over the E Gulf with axis over Florida along 80W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis over the W Atlantic enhancing showers. Strong NE winds will continue across the SE Gulf tonight. The front and low will shift slowly SE tonight through Thu and weaken as high pressure builds across the NW Gulf. High pressure will then dominate the Gulf region through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front has entered the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are over the far NW Caribbean N of a line from W Cuba near 23N80W to N Belize near 18N88W. 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the S Caribbean S of 18N with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are noted over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, Jamaica, and the SW Caribbean S of 12N to include Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. A broad upper level ridge continues to sit over the Caribbean with strong subsidence suppressing convection. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through today before winds become moderate to fresh winds Thu through Sun. An old frontal boundary across the Yucatan Channel is sinking slowly southward into the NW Caribbean tonight and will gradually stall and dissipate from NE coast of Honduras to E Cuba Thu night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the basin through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to a 1015 mb low E of the N Bahamas near 26N74W. A cold front continues to the Straits of Florida near 23N80W. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N70W to S Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers are over most of the W Atlantic W of 62W and N of 24N. A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N51W with ridging extending SE to the Leeward Islands. Southwest of this feature, a surface trough extends from 24N34W to 16N48W. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over the W Atlantic W of 70W enhancing showers. An upper level low is centered W of the Canary Islands near 31N24W producing scattered showers N of 24N between 14W-30W. Over the W Atlantic, NE swell will propagate mainly across the waters W of 68W through at least Thu. A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern waters Thu morning through Fri and then stall from 25N65W to the approaches of the Windward Passage on Sat morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa