174 AXNT20 KNHC 192348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ....Atlantic Gale Warning... A stationary front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure centered near 29N67W across the NW Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida. The front will meander through Wed as a second low pressure center develops along it near 27.5N74W tonight, and moves NE and deepens through Thu. Strong to gale-force winds are expected across the northwest semicircle of this low by Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-02S between 25W-31W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of these boundaries mainly east of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends westward from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to a 1013 mb low near 23N86W to a 1014 mb low near 19N92W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough is noted in scatterometer data behind the front from 26N82W to 23N92W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the trough over the eastern half of the basin. Another trough is analyzed over the northwest Gulf from 28N96W to 24N95W with scattered showers. An upper level trough extends into the western Gulf of Mexico with upper level diffluence east of the wave axis enhancing convection particularly in the eastern Gulf. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds are expected to be within about 90 nm NW of the low/front. The front and low will shift slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba tonight through Thu and weaken as high pressure builds across the NW Gulf. High pressure will then dominate the Gulf region through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the southern half of the basin, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The low/front currently over the Yucatan Channel are enhancing scattered showers across the far northwest Caribbean affecting western Cuba and adjacent waters. Low-topped showers are moving quickly west with the trades across the Greater Antilles. An upper level ridge continues to sit over the Caribbean, providing strong subsidence that is suppressing significant convection. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean through Wednesday night, then expect moderate to fresh winds afterwards. An old frontal boundary across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida will sink south into the northwest Caribbean tonight and gradually stall and dissipate from northeast coast of Honduras to east Cuba Thursday night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the basin through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to the section above for details. A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N67W, with a stationary front extending southwest of the low to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and northwest of the front. Meanwhile, a 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N50W with ridging extending across the Atlantic waters and into the northeast Caribbean. Southwest of this feature, a surface trough extends from 25N36W to 17N46W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered north of the area near 43N20W. The stationary front will meander through Wednesday as a second low pressure center develops along it near 27.5N74W tonight, and moves northeast and deepens through Thursday. Strong to gale- force winds are expected across the NW semicircle of the low center on Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds are also expected behind the frontal boundary. NE swell behind these features will propagate mainly across the waters north of 27N through at least Thursday. A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern waters Thursday morning through Friday and then stall from 25N65W to the approaches of the Windward Passage on Saturday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA