000 AXNT20 KNHC 191751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ....Atlantic Gale Warning... On 20/1200 UTC a 1013 mb low is forecast to be over the western Atlantic near 29N67W. A cold front is forecast to extend south from the low to 24N76W. A gale with NE winds is forecast north of 27N between 63W and 68W, with seas 8 to 10 ft. The gale is expected to end on 21/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 03N-02S between 25W-31W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 03N-04S between 10W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends westward from the Straits of Florida near 24N81W to a 1013 mb low near 23N86W to the southwest Gulf near 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over the the southern and eastern portions of Gulf of Mexico and as well as across central and southern Florida in addition to Deep South Texas. Winds are N to NE between 20-30 kt north of the front. An upper level trough extends into the western Gulf of Mexico with upper level diffluence east of the wave axis enhancing convection particularly in the eastern Gulf. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds are expected to be within about 90 nm NW of the low/front. The low will move towards the NW Bahamas this afternoon dragging the cold front and will move SE of the area tonight. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as the front moves SE of the Gulf waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the Gulf region through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern Caribbean south of 17N has 10-30 kt trade winds. An area just to the northwest of Colombia has winds between 25-30 kt. South of the stationary front located in the southern Gulf of Mexico, winds are out of the south between 5-10 kt in the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers are moving across Nicaragua eastward across the central Caribbean toward Hispaniola. Isolated showers are seen moving across Cuba and to the south of the frontal boundary in the northwest Caribbean. Some showers are also seen in the northern portions of the Lesser Antilles. An upper level ridge continues to sit over the Caribbean, providing strong subsidence that is suppressing convection. High pressure centered over the central Atlc will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Wed night, then expect moderate to fresh winds afterwards. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the basin through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N67W, with a cold front extending southwest of the low to near 28N71W, becoming stationary from that point and stretches to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is moving off the east coast of Florida west of 74W. Meanwhile, a 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N50W with ridging extending across the Atlantic waters and into the northeast Caribbean. A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the east Atlantic near 23N37W, with a trough extending along the low from 25N36W to 17N48W. Scattered showers prevail within 240 nm east of the low. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered north of the area near 43N22W. Another low pressure center, currently located over the Gulf of Mexico, will move toward the NW Bahamas this afternoon, then to near 29N67W by Wed morning. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected on the NW semicircle of the low center Wed and Wed night over the NE corner of the forecast area. Fresh to strong winds are also expected behind the frontal boundary. NE swell behind these features will propagate mainly across the waters N of 27N through at least Thu. A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern waters Thu morning through Fri and then stall from 25N65W to the approaches of the Windward Passage on Sat morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR