000 AXNT20 KNHC 191035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ....Atlantic Gale Warning... On 20/1200 UTC a 1012 mb low is forecast to be over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. A cold front is forecast to extend S from the low to 24N71W. A gale with NE winds is forecast N of 27N between 63W and 72W, with seas 8 to 13 ft. The gale is expected to end on 21/0600 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N- 04S between 10W-16W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N- 07S between 22W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 19/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to 22N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico and Florida, E of 85W and N of 25N. 20-30 kt N to NE winds are N of the front. In the upper levels, a trough is over the W Gulf with axis along 92W. Upper level diffluence E of the wave axis is enhancing the convection over the E Gulf. The front will weaken this afternoon and winds will diminish to strong covering mainly the SE basin. The front will transition to a cold front and exit the region this evening. A new surface ridge will build S across the area Wed and prevail through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern Caribbean S of 18N has 10-30 kt trade winds. The NW Caribbean has 5-10 kt southerly winds, S of the Gulf of Mexico stationary front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted inland over N Colombia. The Caribbean Sea is void of convection. Some scattered showers are advecting to the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands from the tropical Atlantic. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 76W. Very strong subsidence is over the Caribbean suppressing convection. High pressure centered over the central Atlc will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean Sea through early Wed, before the high moves E and winds diminish for the remainder of the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the remainder of the area through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 mb surface low is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N67W, with a stationary front extending from the low to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1021 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N52W. A 1015 mb surface low is centered over the e Atlantic near 26N39W, with a trough extending S from the low to 20N40W. Scattered showers prevail within 240 nm NE of the low. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered north of the area near 42N22W. The frontal boundary will shift slowly SE through Wed to eventually extend from 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos Wed evening. A new surface low will develop and move NE away from the Bahamas. As the low develops, gale force winds are expected N of 29N E of 70W starting Wed morning and continuing through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will move across the northern waters Thu morning through Fri and then stall from 25N65W to the approaches of the Windward Passage on Sat morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa