000 AXNT20 KNHC 190543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Northeast gale-force winds are presently near the coast of Colombia from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, with seas to 10 ft. The gale is forecast to end on 19/1500 UTC. Thereafter, a surface low centered northeast of the Bahamas will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic and allow the nocturnal gale-force winds to diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ....Atlantic Gale Warning... On 20/1800 UTC a cold front is forecast to be over the W Atlantic from 31N61W to a 1012 mb low near 29N71W to 25N74W to 23N79W. A gale with NE to E winds are forecast N of 30N between 65W and 71W, with seas 11 to 17 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-03S between 10W-15W, and from 01S-06S between 27W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 19/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to 23N88W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front. In addition, scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico and Florida, E of 90W and N of 25N. 20-30 kt N to NE winds are N of the front. In the upper levels, a trough is over the W Gulf with axis along 92W. Upper level diffluence E of the wave axis is enhancing the convection over the E Gulf. Strong NE winds will cover almost the entire Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, then the far eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday as the front exits the southeast Gulf. Winds could reach near gale-force over parts of the southeast Gulf, as a weak low pressure center moves along the front Tuesday. A new surface ridge will build south across the area Wed through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale is presently along the coast of N Colombia. The remainder of the southern Caribbean S of 18N has 10-30 kt trade winds. The NW Caribbean has 5-10 kt southerly winds, S of the Gulf of Mexico cold front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted inland over N Colombia. The Caribbean Sea is void of convection. Some scattered showers are advecting to the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands from the tropical Atlantic. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 76W. Very strong subsidence is over the Caribbean suppressing convection. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean Sea through early Wed, before the high moves E and winds diminish for the remainder of the week. Gale force NE winds will blow along the coast of Colombia until mid morning Tue, then fresh to strong winds are expected along the coast of Colombia through Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the remainder of the area through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 mb surface low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N71W, with a cold front extending from the low to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. A stationary front extends E from the low to beyond 31N63W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the frontal system. A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N54W. A 1016 mb surface low is centered over the e Atlantic near 26N39W, with a trough extending S from the low to 20N40W. Scattered showers prevail within 240 nm NE of the low. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1036 mb high centered north of the area near 42N20W. The frontal boundary will shift slowly SE through Wed to eventually extend from 31N57W to eastern Cuba by Thu afternoon in response to new low pres developing and moving NE away from the Bahamas along the front. As the low develops gale force winds will be possible N of 30N between 65W and 71W Wed evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa