000 AXNT20 KNHC 182328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 728 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... Northeast gale-force winds are expected again tonight near the coast of Colombia from 19/0000 UTC to 19/1500 UTC. Thereafter, a surface low centered northeast of the Bahamas will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic and allow the nocturnal gale-force winds to diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm on either sides of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. The strongest activity remains inland near the ITCZ over Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the southern portion of the basin, from 24N80W to 24N86W to a 1014 mb low near 21N93W. A surface trough is noted from the low to 21N90W. Scattered showers are noted along and north of the front, covering the majority of the basin at this time. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds west of 90W, while gentle to moderate north/northeasterly winds prevail east of 90W. Strong easterly winds will cover almost the entire Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, then the far eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday as the front exits the southeast Gulf. Winds could reach near gale- force over parts of the southeast Gulf, as weak low pressure center moves along the front Tuesday. A new surface ridge will build south across the area by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh trades cover most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong to near-gale winds pulsing near the coast of Colombia. Gentle winds cover the west Caribbean west of 79W. No significant convection is over the basin at this time, other than typical scattered low-topped showers moving quickly with the trade winds over portions of the Greater Antilles as well as Central America. High pressure centered over the Atlantic to the northeast of the basin will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean through Wednesday, before the high pressure center moves east, and the wind speeds diminish for the remainder of the week. The trade winds will be pulsing to minimal gale- force along the coast of Colombia, from tonight until Tuesday morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb surface low is centered near 29N74W, with cold front extending from the low to 24N80W. A stationary front extends from the low to 31N68W. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the low and front mainly west of 70W. To the east, a 1022 mb high is centered near 28N54W. A 1015 mb surface low is centered near 28N37W, with trough extending from the low to 20N42W. Scattered showers prevail with the low. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered north of the area near 43N19W. The frontal boundary will shift slowly southeast through midweek, then extend from 31N57W to eastern Cuba by Thursday afternoon in response to the low pressure moving northeast away from the Bahamas along the front. The low over the central Atlantic will dissipate by Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA