000 AXNT20 KNHC 181028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 628 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night near the coast of Colombia through Monday night. Presently a gale is from 11N-12N between 74W-76W, with seas to 12 ft. This gale is forecast to end on 18/1500 UTC. It is forecast to resume again on 19/0000 UTC. Thereafter, a low developing near the Bahamas will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic and allow the nocturnal gale- winds to diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 15W-23W, and from 02N-07S between 32W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 18/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to 22N90W to a 1014 mb low over the SW Gulf of Mexico near 21N94.5W. A stationary front extends SE from the low to the Bay of Campeche near 19N91W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Elsewhere radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from 25N-30N between 93W-100W. Northerly 15-30 kt winds are N of the frontal system. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with broken to overcast high clouds. Strong high pressure is present to the northwest and north of the front. A tight gradient between the high pressure and the front is supporting strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds over the far SW Gulf. These winds will diminish to strong winds on Tue and to moderate winds on Wed. Strong northeast to east winds will cover almost the entire Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night and the far eastern Gulf on Wed as the front begins to move southeastward as a cold front, exiting the area to over northwestern Cuba early on Wed. As the weak low pressure tracks along the front through Tue, winds may possibly approach near gale force over parts of the southeastern Gulf. New high pressure will then build southward over the area beginning on Thu and through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale is along the coast of Colombia. See above. The remainder of the Caribbean has 10-30 kt tradewinds with weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, Guatemala, E Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean with axis along 74W. Very strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean and Central America suppressing convection. High pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda near 29N54W will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean Sea through early Wed, before the high moves eastward and wind speeds diminish for the remainder of the week. Trade winds are pulsing to minimal gale-force along the coast of Colombia. These winds diminish to just below gale later this morning and pulse back up to gale force tonight into early on Tue. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30N74W. A cold front extends SW to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 29N54W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 29N39W. A surface trough extends S from this low to 23N41W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near 30N38W enhancing showers. The Atlantic cold front will move slowly southeastward reaching from near 31N65W to the Straits of Florida on Tue morning, from near 27N65W to northwest Cuba by early on Tue night, then from near 26N65W to central Cuba on Wed and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 25N65W to east- central Cuba on Thu and become stationary through Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa