000 AXNT20 KNHC 180523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds are expected to pulse every night near the coast of Colombia through Monday night. Presently a gale is from 11N-12N between 74W-76W, with seas to 12 ft. This gale is forecast to end on 18/1500 UTC. It is forecast to resume again on 19/0000 UTC. Thereafter, a low developing near the Bahamas will weaken the ridge over the western Atlantic and allow the nocturnal gale- winds to diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 12W-17W, and from 01N-06S between 30W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 18/0300 UTC, a 1016 mb low is centered near S Florida at 26N80W. A cold front extends to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W to 23N86W. A stationary front continues to a 1014 mb low over the central Gulf of Mexico near 22N92W. A stationary front extends S from the low to the Bay of Campeche near 19N91W. Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida from 23N-24N between 81W-83W. Northerly 15-30 kt winds are N of the frontal system. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with broken to overcast high clouds. Strong high pressure over Texas and eastern Mexico will support strong to near gale-force NW to N winds S of 26N and W of 94W through early Monday evening, then the winds in this area will slowly diminish through Tue night. Strong NE to E winds will cover almost the entire Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night as the front sinks slowly S to exit the Gulf by Wed evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale is along the coast of Colombia. See above. The remainder of the Caribbean has 10-30 kt tradewinds with weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are noted over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean with axis along 74W. Very strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean and Central America suppressing convection. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic near 29N55W will support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean Sea through early Wednesday before the high moves E and wind speeds diminish for the remainder of the week. Trade winds will pulse to minimal gale-force along the coast of Colombia tonight and Monday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 31N73W. A cold front extends SW to a 1016 mb low just off the coast of S Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 29N55W. A 1016 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N41W. A surface trough extends S from this low to 23N42W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of the trough. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near 31N39W enhancing showers. The central Atlantic High will continue heading ESE and weaken through mid week. The W Atlantic frontal system will move slowly SE Mon and reach from near 31N65W to the Straits of Florida Tue, from near 26N65W to central Cuba on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 25N65W to east central Cuba on Thu. Strong N winds will cover the western half of the basin Mon night through Tue. Winds will veer to NE and become strong across the basin N of 24N on Wed, before shifting to the E of 70W Wed night and Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa