000 AXNT20 KNHC 162353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale force winds are expected to pulse at night near the coast of Colombia each night from tonight through Monday night, then low pressure developing near the Bahamas will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc and allow the gales to diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near 07N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 04S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 03S to 00N between 08W and 20W and from 00N to 02N between 18W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from near Ft Myers Florida to 26N85W, then continues as a nearly stationary front to 1018 mb low pres centered near 21N93W to 18.5N92W. Extensive low to mid-level cloudiness and patchy rain is observed across all portions of the northern and western Gulf of Mexico NW of the front. Over the SE Gulf light to moderate winds and fair weather are evident The gradient between the frontal boundary over the Gulf and high pressure ridging southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental of eastern Mexico has relaxed a bit but will remain strong enough to support strong to near gale force NW to N winds along the Tamaulipas and Veracruz coasts of Mexico until Mon afternoon. By late tonight the frontal boundary will reach from SW Florida as a cold front to 23N89W, then to 22N93W where it will continue as stationary front to 18.5N93W. The cold front will push slowly S and reach the Straits of Florida late Sunday and Monday while the stationary front weakens and becomes a trough. The cold front will become stationary again on Tuesday then remain along the NW coast of Cuba and the lower Straits of Florida SW to along or just off the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Subsident flow between strong mid to upper-level ridging and a mid to upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean is suppressing convection over the basin. The latest satellite- derived wind data show light to moderate trade winds generally prevail over the basin, except that winds are fresh to strong over the central Caribbean. Strong winds are also occurring in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please see the Special Features section for details on the gales expected along the coast of Colombia through Mon night. High pressure to the north of the area will weaken and allow winds to decrease from Tuesday through Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through the middle part of the next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues moving eastward over the W Atlantic from the coast of Florida. The front currently curves SW from 32N75W to near Vero Beach FL. Cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring along this boundary and northward to beyond 32N. A pre-frontal trough extends SW from 29N79W to 26N81W. Cloudiness and scattered showers concentrate near the trough from 26N to 28N between 79W and 81W. A surface ridge stretches across the western Atlantic waters to the coast of central Florida from a 1022 mb surface high anchoring the ridge near 32N60W. To the east of this ridge, a nearly stationary front extends SW from 32N38W to 26N43W to weak 1017 mb low pres centered near 21N50W to 20N58W. Scattered moderate convection is taking place along and up to 120 nm NW of the front between 20N and 30N. Surface ridging also covers the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1025 mb surface high centered near 35N24W. High pres over the western Atlantic Ocean will shift ESE and weaken through Sunday night. The cold front will push slowly SE and reach from 32N70W to near 29N75W and continue as a nearly stationary front to southern Florida on Sunday morning. The front will remain cold from 32N66W to 30N70W, continue as stationary to near 30N75W, across the NW Bahamas to 25N80W then along the Florida coast to NW Cuba early Sunday night. Low pressure may develop along this front over the Bahamas Tuesday through Wednesday, then track northeastward. The winds and seas in this area could increase as a result. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAM