000 AXNT20 KNHC 161746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 146 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from central Florida to 24N92W to 18N93W. Gale force winds are occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 21N and west of 95W. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected through early this morning over the SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 22N and west of the front. The gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz until 1800 UTC today. Strong to locally near gale force winds are then expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight and Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale force winds are expected at night near the coast of Colombia, beginning tonight and also again on Sunday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N28W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 06N-02S between 06W- 15W. Scattered moderate convection is within 175 nm of the ITCZ between 33W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from central Florida to 24N92W to 18N93W. Numerous moderate rain and isolated thunderstorms are observed across the northern and western Gulf of Mexico NW of the front. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving along the South Texas coast and northeast Mexico. A 16/1528 ASCAT pass shows gale N to NE winds within 140 nm of the front continue west of 95W and strong winds cover the remainder of the NW Gulf across the Texas and Louisiana coastline. Strong mid-upper level ridging continues to drift eastward. Because of this, and a surface trough to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, isolated showers continue over the eastern portions of the SW Gulf. Showers continue to move westward across the western tip of Cuba from 23N-22N between 82W-83W. Ahead of the cold front, isolated showers are moving southward from central to south Florida. The gradient between the cold front and high pressure building southward across Texas and eastern Mexico will support strong to minimal gale force northwest to north winds behind the front into early Sat afternoon as the cold front reaches from the W coast of Florida near 27N82.5W to 24N91W, and stationary to 18.5N92W. The cold front will reach from SW Florida by late tonight and to 23N89W and to 22N93W where it will continue as stationary to 18.5N93W. The cold front will reach the Straits of Florida from late Sunday into Monday while the stationary front weakens. The cold front will become stationary again on Tuesday, along the NW coast of Cuba and the lower Straits of Florida, southwestward to along or just offshore the northern and northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through early on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong mid-level ridging is causing subsidence cover the western Caribbean. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level trough axis stretches through the eastern Caribbean. Typical isolated showers are over portions of the NE and W Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1350 shows strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean south of 16N. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except for moderate in the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are also occurring in the Gulf of Venezuela. High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in much of the central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday. These winds will decrease in coverage from Tuesday until Wednesday night. NE to E winds will pulse to minimal gale- force at night, from tonight until Monday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through the middle part of the next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues moving eastward in the W Atlantic, entering the forecast area at 31N77W to Cocoa Beach FL. Isolated showers are moving over central and south Florida with showers and isolated thunderstorms off the east coast of Florida near a pre-frontal trough. Light to moderate showers are moving off the Georgia coast N of the cold front. A surface ridge stretches across the western Atlantic waters with a 1024 mb surface high anchoring the ridge near 33N58W. To the east of this ridge, a cold front enters the area at 31N38W to 25N45W to 21N55W. Scattered moderate convection is along the front between 41W-51W. Surface ridging also covers the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1025mb surface high centered near 35N24W. High pressure across the western Atlantic Ocean will shift ESE and weaken through Sunday night. A weak cold front is offshore the coasts of Florida and Georgia. This front will reach from near 31N76W to Stuart, Florida by this afternoon and from 31N71W to near 29N75W and stationary to southern Florida on Sunday morning. The front eventually will be cold along 31N67W to 30N70W, becoming stationary to near 30N75W, across the NW Bahamas to 25N80W along the Florida coast to NW Cuba early Sunday night. It is possible that a low pressure center may develop along the front, from Tuesday through Wednesday and track northeastward. The wind speeds and sea heights will increase across much of the central and western waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR