000 AXNT20 KNHC 161050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Big Bend to 24N93W, and stationary to 18N93W. Gale force winds are occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 21N and west of 95W. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected through early this morning over the SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 22N and west of the front. The gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz until 1800 UTC today. Strong to locally near gale force winds are then expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight and Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale force winds are expected at night near the coast of Colombia, beginning tonight and also again on Sunday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N22W to 03S26W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 01S-07N between 09W- 14W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 17W-19W and within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 24W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Big Bend to 24N93W, and stationary to 21N94W to 18N93W. Numerous moderate rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms cover the northern and western Gulf of Mexico NW of the front, but not within 30 nm of the Texas coast. A 16/0302 ASCAT pass shows near gale N to NE winds within 180 nm NW of the front west of 90W, with strong winds covering the remainder of the NW Gulf closer to the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. The strong mid-upper level ridging that had been over the south-central and SE Gulf is starting to move away toward the E. This, along with a surface trough over the W Yucatan Peninsula is responsible for recent development of isolated showers over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers are also seen just north of the western tip of Cuba from 22N-24N between 82W-86W. A surface trough over the Florida peninsula is inducing isolated showers over the central Florida peninsula and the waters just offshore between Port Charlotte and Sarasota. The gradient between the cold front over the Gulf and high pressure building S across Texas and eastern Mexico will support strong to gale force northwest to north winds behind the front over the SW Gulf into early this afternoon as the cold front reaches from near Tampa Bay Florida to 25N90W to 23N94W and stationary to 18N94W. The cold front will reach from SW Florida by late tonight to 23N89W and to 22N93W, where it will continue as stationary to 18.5N93W. The cold front will push southward some more reaching the Straits of Florida late Sun into Mon, while the stationary part weakens. The cold front will again become stationary on Tue along the northwest coast of Cuba and lower Straits of Florida, southwestward to along or just offshore the northern and northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through early Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong mid level anticyclonic flow and subsidence cover the western Caribbean, although some showers are located near a trough within and just N of the Yucatan Channel. A mid-upper level trough axis runs through the eastern Caribbean. Typical isolated showers are over portions of the NE Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass from Friday evening shows strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean south of 15N, with near gales near the coast of Colombia. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except for moderate in the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Wed. These winds will likely decrease in coverage Tue through Wed night. Northeast to east winds will pulse to minimal gale force at night tonight and Sun night, with some possibility that they may again pulse to gale force on Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through the middle part of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has moved into the W Atlantic and extends from 32N80W to Jacksonville Florida to the Florida Big Bend. Isolated showers are over Florida and just east of central Florida due to a surface trough over Florida. Isolated showers are also near the coast of Georgia more due to the front. A 1024 mb surface high near 34N61W extends a ridge over most of the western Atlantic waters. Farther east, a cold front enters the area near 32N40W to 29N41W to 24N47W to 22N53W, and stationary to 21N57W. Scattered moderate convection is along the front between 44W-53W. Scattered showers are also seen north of 29N between 35W-49W due to a combination of upper level and surface features in the area. Surface ridging covers the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 35N23W. High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift SE and weaken through Sun night. A weak cold front is just offshore the Georgia and northeast Florida coasts. This front will reach from near 31N77W to Stuart Florida by early this afternoon, and from near Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to southern Florida by early on Sun. The front will become stationary from near 29N65W to the central Bahamas to northwest Cuba by late Sun. Low pressure may develop along the front Tue through Wed and track northeastward, with increasing winds and building seas expected across much of the central and western waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen