000 AXNT20 KNHC 160537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 137 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from Apalachicola Florida to 23N94W to 18N93W. Gale force winds are occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 21N and west of 95W. Seas of 10-16 ft are expected through early this morning over the SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 24N and west of the front. The gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz until 1800 UTC today. Strong to locally near gale force winds are then expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight and Sun as a sharp ridge remains in place along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N22W to 03S26W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 00N-04N between 06W- 14W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 00N-06N between 06W-19W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen from 06S-01S between 22W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from Apalachicola Florida to 23N94W to 18N93W. Numerous moderate rainshowers and scattered thunderstorms are seen along and W of the front, especially NW of a line from 30N86W to 25N98W. A 16/0302 ASCAT pass shows near gale N to NE winds within 180 nm NW of the front west of 90W, with strong winds covering the remainder of the NW Gulf closer to the coasts of Texas and western Louisiana. The strong mid-upper level ridging that had been over the south- central and SE Gulf is starting to move away toward the E. This, along with a surface trough over the W Yucatan Peninsula is responsible for recent development of isolated showers over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also seen just north of the western tip of Cuba from 22N-24N between 82W-86W. A surface trough over the Florida Peninsula is inducing isolated showers over portions of southern and central Florida and the waters just off of Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte. A surface ridge building south across Texas and eastern Mexico will support strong to gale force winds behind the cold front this morning. The front will reach from the Florida W coast near 27.5N to 23N95W to E Bay of Campeche later this morning, then become stationary and meander through Sun. The front will push south as a cold front on Mon, and become stationary for a second time, along the NW coast of Cuba extending west southwestward to just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula through Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong mid level anticyclonic flow and subsidence cover the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are near the W tip of Cuba near the eastern Yucatan Channel. Typical isolated showers are over portions of the NE Caribbean as well. The latest ASCAT pass from Friday evening shows strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean south of 15N, with near gales near the coast of Colombia. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except for moderate in the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are likely occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. High pressure across the W Atlc will support fresh to strong trades across much of the central Caribbean through Tue. Strong to near gale-force winds along coastal Colombia will continue with peak winds during the night and early morning hours. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high centered just NE of Bermuda extends a ridge SW over the forecast waters in the western Atlantic to the NW Bahamas. Mid-upper level ridging is also present over the W Atlantic west of about 67W. A surface trough over the Florida peninsula is producing isolated showers over Florida. Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion area near 32N41W and curves SW to 26N46W to 22N52W, then continues W as a stationary front to 21N58W. A weakening stationary front continues westward along 21N to the SE Bahamas. A surface trough extends from 22N50W to 17N54W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the stationary front from 20N-24N between 47W-58W. An occluded low is near 35N49W. A mid-upper level trough axis extends from 32N48W to 22N58W to the eastern Caribbean Sea. Those features, along with the cold front, are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 29N between 34W-48W. Surface ridging covers the eastern Atlantic, emanating from high pressure near and east of the Azores. The weakening stationary front along 21N will drift south to near the N coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Sunday and gradually dissipate. High pressure across the W Atlc will shift southeastward and weaken through the weekend. The next cold front will move off the SE Georgia and NE Florida coasts early this morning and reach from near 31N77W to Stuart Florida by early this afternoon, and from near Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to southern Florida by early Sunday. The front will eventually become stationary from near 29N65W across the central Bahamas to NW Cuba late Tue. Low pressure may develop along the front Tue through Wed and track northeastward, with increasing winds and seas expected across much of the central and western waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen