000 AXNT20 KNHC 152332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 732 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front extends over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N86W to 26N92W to 20N96W. Satellite-derived sea height data from around 1550Z indicated gale force winds were occurring over the waters W of the front off the Texas coast as well as all the waters W of the front and adjacent to the Mexican State of Tamaulipas. The gales will continue through Sat afternoon but gradually wind down from N to S with the final area of gales located over the waters adjacent to Veracruz. Seas of 10 to 15 feet are expected W of the front during this time frame. Strong to near gale force winds are then expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico Sat night and Sun as a sharp ridge remains in place along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02N25W to the coast of Brazil near 04S41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 00N and 05S between 25W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico from 30N86W to 26N92W to 20N96W. Extensive cloudiness and patchy rain are seen along and W of the front. Strong to gale force NE winds are found W of the front while moderate ESE winds are occurring E of the front. Upper-level ridging over the SE Gulf of Mexico is maintaining strong subsidence over the area. Elsewhere, convergent low-level winds near South Florida are generating scattered light showers from 25N to 27N between 81W and 83W. The cold front will begin to slow down as it moves across the eastern Gulf tonight and Sat, and become stationary from near Fort Myers, Florida to 23N87W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun and Sun night. A reinforcing surge of cold air will push the front south as a cold front on Mon. The front will once again become stationary across the Straits of Florida, N Cuba, and WSW to near the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night. A trough will set up from NW to SW over the SW Gulf on Sun and weaken Mon through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... The NE gale-force winds that were occurring within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia have abated and have allowed sea heights in this area to subside to around 9 ft. Winds along the coast of Colombia will remain strong to near gale force through the middle of next week as ridging over the western Atlc is weakened by low pressure moving E from the United States. The slightly weaker high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades in much of the central Caribbean Sea through Tue. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through early next week. Shower coverage remains isolated over the basin as an upper-level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America maintains subsident flow over the western Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high centered near 35N62W ridges SW over the forecast waters in the western Atlantic to near Cape Canaveral Florida. A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N42W and curves SW to 25N47W to 21N55W, continues W as a stationary front to 21N62W, then finally W as a weakening stationary front to 20N67W to 22N72W to just N of eastern Cuba near 21N75W. A surface trough precedes the front from 29N43W to 23N47W. Scattered moderate convection associated with these features is observed N of a line from 30N39W to 26N43W to 30N46W. Ridging extending SW from 1028 mb high pres centered NE of the Azores near 42N16W is supporting light to moderate NE winds over the tropical Atlc between 25W and the Windward Islands. The stationary front will dissipate by Sat afternoon, while the cold front will progress slowly E and stall from near 32N40W to 22N50W by Sun afternoon and weaken as it does so. High pressure north of the front will shift ESE through the weekend in response to the next cold front expected to move off the SE Georgia and NE Florida coasts Fri night. This next front will reach from near 31N77W to Stuart, Florida by early Sat afternoon, from near Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to southern Florida by early Sun, from near 31N65W to 29N69W and stationary to the NW Bahamas and to southern Florida by early Mon afternoon, then become stationary from near 29N65W to 27N74W and to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida and Cuba on Tues. Low pressure may develop along this next front near the Bahamas, then track NE early next week. Increasing winds and building seas would result for much of the central and western waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy