000 AXNT20 KNHC 151739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds were occurring within 90 nm N of Colombia. Corresponding sea heights in this area range between 9 and 10 ft. Winds along the coast of Colombia will remain below gale force through the weekend as ridging over the western Atlc is weakened by low pressure moving E across the United States. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N88W to 26N94W to 20N96W. Gale force winds are currently over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz as seen in the scatterometer data south of 27N and west of 95W. These conditions will continue through Sat. Seas of 10 to 15 feet are expected W of the front. Strong to near gale force winds are then expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico Sat night and Sun as a sharp ridge remains in place along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01S25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 00N-05S between 24W- 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Pensacola Florida near 30N88W to 26N93W to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. Numerous moderate showers and scattered thunderstorms cover the NW Gulf of Mexico to the NW of the cold front. Scattered showers is also noted along the cold front. Strong NE winds are found NW of the front while moderate SE winds are occurring SE of the front. Upper level ridging over the Yucatan and south-central Gulf of Mexico is inducing strong subsidence over the area. Elsewhere, mid-level moisture closer to South Florida is inducing scattered showers from the western Florida Straits to the Naples area from 26N-24N between 81W-83W. The front will reach from near from near Panama City, Florida to the central Gulf by this afternoon, where it will transition to a stationary front southwestward to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front, except increasing to gale force on Fri evening near Veracruz, Mexico and over the Tampico adjacent waters. The front will begin to slow down as it moves across the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat, and become stationary from near Fort Myers, Florida to 23N87W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sat and through Sun night. The front will push south as a cold front on Mon and become stationary across the lower Straits of Florida, N Cuba, and west-southwestward to near the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night. A trough will set up from northwest to southeast over the SW Gulf on Sun and weaken Mon through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades are over the central Caribbean S of 17N between 67W-79W, with moderate winds in the NE Caribbean and between 77W-84W. The exceptions are that strong to minimal gale force winds prevail near the coast of Colombia, with strong to locally near gale in the Gulf of Honduras S of 19N and W of 85W. Scattered showers are seen moving south of the Greater Antilles. Additionally, scattered showers were also seen moving across the NW Caribbean and into Central America near Costa Rica and into the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, shower coverage remains isolated as an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America maintains subsident flow over the western Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades in much of the central Caribbean Sea through Tue. Gale-force winds along and near the coast of Colombia are diminishing this afternoon, and continue as strong to near gale- force speeds during the next few nights and early mornings. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the remainder of the area through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 mb high near 35N65W extends a ridge over the forecast waters in the western Atlantic. On the southern periphery of the ridge, isolated showers are near South Florida and the Florida Straits due to slightly enhanced moisture in the area. A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N44W and extends southwestward to 26N48W to 21N63W. A stationary front extends westward from 21N63W to the southern Bahamas near 22N72W. A surface trough curves ahead of the front from 30N44W to 22N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and ahead of the front from 30N-23N between 38W-44W. Ridging east of 40W is leading to fair weather in the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1031 mb high near 42N16W. The stationary front along 22N will dissipate by Sat afternoon. High pressure north of the front will shift east-southeastward through the weekend in response to the next cold front expected to move off the SE Georgia and NE Florida coasts Fri night. This front will reach from near 31N77W to Stuart, Florida by early Sat afternoon, from near Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to southern Florida by early Sun, from near 31N65W to 29N69W and stationary to the NW Bahamas and to southern Florida by early Mon afternoon, and stationary from near 29N65W to 27N74W and to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida and Cuba on Tues. It is possible that low pressure may develop along the front and track northeastward early next week, with increasing winds and building seas expected in much of the central and western waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR/ERA