000 AXNT20 KNHC 151101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds are occurring near the coast of Colombia and are expected to end around 1500 UTC this morning. Corresponding sea heights will range between 10 and 11 feet. Winds along the coast of Colombia are then forecast to remain below gale force through the weekend as ridging over the western Atlc is weakened by low pres moving E across the United States. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N88W to 24N96W to 20N97W to 22N100W. Gale force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz by late this afternoon or early evening south of 24N and west of 95W, lasting into Saturday morning. Seas of 10 to 15 feet are expected W of the front. Strong to near gale force winds are then expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico Sat night and Sun as a sharp ridge remains in place along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01S26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01N-05N between 17W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07S-00N between 30W- 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 0900 UTC, a cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from near Pascagoula Mississippi to Buras Louisiana to 24N96W to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W to 22N100W. Numerous moderate rainshowers and scattered thunderstorms cover the NW Gulf of Mexico to the NW of the cold front. Strong NE winds are found NW of the front while moderate SE winds are occurring SE of the front. 500-mb ridging over the Yucatan and south-central Gulf of Mexico is inducing strong subsidence in that area. An area of slightly higher mid-level moisture closer to South Florida is inducing scattered showers from the western Florida Straits to the Naples area from 23.5N-26N between 81W-83W. The cold front over the Gulf will reach from Panama City Florida to the central Gulf by this afternoon, where it will transition to a stationary front SW to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front, except increasing to gale force by early evening over portions of the area. See section above for details. The front will slow down as it moves across the eastern Gulf tonight into Sat, and become stationary from near Fort Myers Florida to 23N87W to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sat through Sun night. The front will then push south on Mon toward the Florida Straits. A trough will set up from northwest to southeast over the SW Gulf on Sun and weaken Mon through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades are over the central Caribbean S of 17N between 67W-78W, with moderate winds in the NE Caribbean and between 79W-84W. The exceptions are that strong to minimal gale force winds prevail near the coast of Colombia, with strong to locally near gale in the Gulf of Honduras S of 19N and W of 85W. Scattered showers are seen south of the Cayman Islands from 16N- 20N between 79W-82W. Elsewhere, shower coverage remains isolated as 500-mb ridging over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America maintains subsident flow over the western Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Tue. Gale force winds along and near the coast of Colombia will diminish to near gale force early this morning and continue as strong to near gale force speeds through the next few nights and early mornings. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high near 34N68W extends a ridge over the forecast waters in the western Atlantic. On the southern periphery of the ridge, isolated showers are near South Florida and the Florida Straits due to slightly enhanced moisture in the area. A cold front extends SW from the central Atlantic near 32N45W to 24N52W to 21N59W to 22N62W, then continues as a stationary front to the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough curves ahead of the front from 28N45W to 17N56W. Upper-level troughing covers the area of the Atlantic and Caribbean between 50W-68W. Diffluent upper-level flow to the E of this trough is triggering scattered moderate convection over the central Atlantic N of 23N between 40W-48W. Ridging east of 40W is leading to fair weather in the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1032 mb high near 42N16W. The weakening stationary front along 22N from 62W to the Turks and Caicos Islands will dissipate by Sat afternoon. High pressure north of the front will shift east-southeastward through the weekend in response to the next cold front that will move off the SE Georgia and NE Florida coasts tonight. This front will reach from near 31N77W to Stuart, Florida by early Sat afternoon, from near Bermuda to near 29N74W and stationary to southern Florida by early Sun, and from near 31N65W to 29N69W and stationary to the NW Bahamas and to southern Florida by early Mon afternoon. Low pressure may develop along the front and track northeastward early next week with increasing winds and building seas expected over much of the central and western waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen