000 AXNT20 KNHC 150537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 137 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds are expected to begin now, around 15/0600 UTC along the coast of Colombia, then end around sunrise this morning. Corresponding sea heights will range between 10 and 11 feet. Winds along the coast of Colombia are forecast to then remain below gale force through Saturday as ridging over the western Atlc is weakened by low pres moving E across the United States. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N91W to 23N98W. Gale force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz by late this afternoon south of 24N and west of 95W, lasting into Saturday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 feet are expected W of the front. Strong to near gale force winds are then expected to continue W of the front along the coast of Mexico Sat night and Sun as a sharp ridge remains in place along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01S26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 240 nm N and 390 nm S of the ITCZ between 20W-29W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 05S-01N between 30W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N91W to 23N98W. Scattered showers are near and NW of the front. Fresh N to NE winds are found NW of the front while moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring south of the front. Strong subsidence and deep- layer ridging cover the southern and southeastern Gulf. Mostly fair weather remains in place SE of the front. The cold front over the NW Gulf will reach from Panama City Florida to the central Gulf by Fri afternoon, where it will transition to a stationary front continuing SW to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force winds will follow the front, increasing to gale force late Fri afternoon or early evening near Veracruz, Mexico and possibly in Tampico adjacent waters. The cold front will reach the Straits of Florida by Sun morning, leaving the remnants of the stationary front over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades are over the central Caribbean S of 17N between 67W-78W, with moderate winds in the NE Caribbean and between 79W-84W. The exceptions are that strong to near gales prevail near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras S of 19N and W of 85W. Gales are forecast near the coast of Colombia now through sunrise this morning. See section above for details. Shower coverage over the basin remains isolated as mid to upper- level ridging along 85W maintains subsident flow over the Caribbean Sea and Central America. High pressure N of the area will only weaken slightly, resulting in near gales near the coast of Colombia each night for the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are also expected to pulse over the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras early this morning and tonight, then diminish Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high near 34N69W extends a ridge over the forecast waters in the western Atlantic. On the southern periphery of the ridge, isolated showers are near the Florida Keys and Florida Straits due to slightly enhanced moisture in the area. A cold front extends SW from the central Atlantic near 32N47W to 24N54W to 22N63W, then continues as a stationary front to 21N70W. A surface trough curves ahead of the front from 27N49W to 17N56W. Upper-level troughing covers the area of the Atlantic and Caribbean between 50W-70W. Divergent upper-level winds to the E of this trough are triggering scattered moderate convection over the central Atlantic within a box bounded by 19N51W 24N54W 32N46W 32N40W 19N49W 19N51W. Ridging east of 40W is leading to fair weather in the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 41N17W. The pressure gradient south of the high supports fresh winds from 10N-25N between 25W-40W. The weakening stationary front from 22N63W to 21N70W will dissipate today. High pressure building in over the subtropical western Atlantic Saturday will shift a little eastward toward the central Atlantic Sunday as the next cold front moves into the region. This cold front will move off the SE United States Fri night, and will reach from Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun, and from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas by Tue evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen