000 AXNT20 KNHC 141721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... NE gale-force winds are expected to begin tonight at 15/0300 UTC along the coast of Colombia. It is forecast to end by 15/1200 UTC. Corresponding sea heights will range between 8 to 11 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz by 16/0000 UTC south of 24N west of front. Seas of 10 to 13 feet are expected. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 06N12W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N-03S between 22W-30W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 00N-13S between 30W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the northwest Gulf of Mexico from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to Deep South Texas near 26N98W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm northwest of front. Light fog persists elsewhere over the north Gulf of Mexico north of 26N and east of front. 10-15 kt northerly winds are north of front and 15-20 kt southerly winds are south of front. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 84W. Strong subsidence covers the entire Gulf. Fair weather is primarily south of the front. The cold front will reach from Mobile Bay Alabama to Tampico Mexico by early Fri, and from Tampa Bay Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico in the Bay of Campeche by early Sat. Winds to gale force will follow the front from Tampico to Veracruz from late Fri through early Sat. Winds and seas will diminish as the front gradually stalls and weakens from the Straits of Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and weakest winds over the Leeward Islands. Passing showers are moving W with the tradewinds mainly N of Puerto Rico,and along the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. In the upper levels, strong subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America suppressing convection. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also expected to pulse over the Gulf of Venezuela and the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N51W to 25N56W to the south Bahamas near 23N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 360 nm E of the front N of 21N. A 1039 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 41N19W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the surface front. Over the western Atlantic, a cold front along 22N will stall through Fri then dissipate. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift east of the region ahead of another cold front moving off the SE United States Fri night. The new front will reach from Bermuda to central Florida by early Sun, then drifting southward to 22N into mid week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa