000 AXNT20 KNHC 141044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Minimal NE gale-force winds are expected to continue pulsing at night along the coast of Colombia through 1200 UTC this morning and again tonight. Corresponding sea heights when winds are highest will range between 8 to 11 feet. A respite in the gales is expected Fri and Sat as low pres moving E from the United States mainland weakens the ridge over the western Atlc. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico later this morning, then move SE across the Gulf through early Sat. Behind the front, gale force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz late Friday and last through early Saturday. Seas of 10 to 13 feet are expected over portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico during that time. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03S29W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07S-01N between 24W and the coast of Brazil. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 07S-03N between 19W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer ridging covers the eastern Gulf, while upper-level ridging is covering the southern Gulf. No significant precipitation is noted over the Gulf at this time. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over most of the Gulf of Mexico, with strong winds in the south-central Gulf. Broken low clouds cover portions of the NW Gulf off of Texas and Louisiana with visibilities reported in the 3 to 6 mile range. A cold front moving eastward over Texas will enter the NW Gulf late this morning. A squall line ahead of the front was oriented along a line from Shreveport Louisiana to Lufkin Texas to 60 nm west-northwest of Houston as of 1000 UTC. This line will reach the NW Gulf around sunrise this morning in a weakened state, likely as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Fri night, then stall from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sat night, then start to slowly drift southward Sun into Mon. Gale force winds are expected to develop over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz on Fri evening through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds continue over much the Caribbean Sea, as shown by the latest ASCAT pass, with moderate winds over portions of the NE and NW Caribbean. The strongest winds are focusing along the coast of Colombia, with another area of 25-30 kt winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Water vapor loops from GOES-16 show very dry air over the southern and western Caribbean. Strong subsidence is over the western Caribbean and Central America due to strong mid-upper level ridging. Mid-upper level troughing covers the E Caribbean E of 68W. In the NE Caribbean where the air is slightly more moist, isolated showers are seen near Puerto Rico and the waters N of 17N between 64W-68W. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale force winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also expected to pulse over the Gulf of Venezuela and Belize offshore waters tonight. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves SW from the central Atlantic near 32N51W to 24N60W to 22N71W, then continues as a stationary front through the SE and central Bahamas to 23N76W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 26N54W to 21N62W. A mid-upper level trough axis extends from 31N56W to 15N61W. These features are enhancing scattered moderate convection along and within 240 nm SE of the cold front, N of 21N and E of 62W. Farther south, another surface trough extends from 13N59W to 20N52W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the northern end of the trough from 19N-23N between 47W-53W. A 1038 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 42N19W is resulting in fresh to strong trades over portions of the subtropical and tropical eastern Atlantic between the coast of Africa and 40W, but these winds will be relaxing slightly later today as the high weakens. The front that extends from 23N65W to the southern Bahamas will drift southward while weakening today. High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through Sat, when a new cold front will move off the coast of the SE United States. The front will stall from near 31N70W to South Florida late Sat, before it starts to slowly drift SE Sun through Mon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen