000 AXNT20 KNHC 140520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Minimal NE gale-force winds are expected to continue pulsing at night along the coast of Colombia through sunrise this morning and again tonight. Corresponding sea heights when winds are highest will range between 8 to 11 feet. A respite in the gales is expected Fri and Sat as low pres moving E from the United States mainland weakens the ridge over the western Atlc. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico late this morning, then move SE across the Gulf through early Sat. Behind the front, gale force winds are forecast to develop over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz late Friday and last through early Saturday. Seas of 10 to 12 feet are expected over portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico during that time. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 04S31W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07S to the Equator between 26W-48W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen elsewhere from 07S-01N between 18W-51W, and from 00N-05N between 15W-29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layer ridging covers the eastern Gulf, while upper-level ridging covering the southern Gulf. A dissipating stationary front was analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 0000 UTC, but this front has since dissipated. No significant precipitation is noted over the Gulf at this time. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over most of the Gulf of Mexico, with strong winds in the south-central Gulf. Broken low clouds cover portions of the NW Gulf off of Texas and Louisiana with visibilities reported in the 2 to 5 mile range. High pressure will prevail over the eastern Gulf through today. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf late this morning, and reach from near Cross City Florida to the Bay of Campeche early on Sat. The front will then stall from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sat night. Gale force winds are expected late Fri and early Sat in the SW Gulf. See section above for details. The front will exit the SE Gulf on Sun morning leaving a surface trough over the SW Gulf with strong to near gale force winds prevailing through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds continue over much the Caribbean Sea, as shown by a recent ASCAT pass, with moderate winds over portions of the NE and NW Caribbean. The strongest winds are focusing along the coast of Colombia, with another area of 25-30 kt winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Water vapor loops from GOES-16 show very dry air over the southern and western Caribbean. Strong subsidence is over the western Caribbean due to strong mid-upper level ridging. Mid-upper level troughing covers the E Caribbean E of 70W. In the NE Caribbean where the air is slightly more moist, isolated showers are seen near Puerto Rico and the waters N of 17N between 65W-68W. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale force winds expected to pulse near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters tonight and Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves SW from the central Atlantic near 32N54W to 24N62W to 23N72W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N78W. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 27N57W to 22N59W. A mid-upper level trough axis extends from 31N58W to the northern Leeward Islands. These features are enhancing scattered moderate convection along and well SE of the cold front, N of 20N between 49W-62W. Farther south, another surface trough is analyzed from 14N55W to 19N51W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the northern end of the trough from 19N-21N between 48W- 52W. A strong 1040 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 42N21W is resulting in fresh to strong trades over portions of the subtropical and tropical eastern Atlantic between the coast of Africa and 40W. The cold front over the W Atlantic will shift south-southeast while weakening through this morning. High pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the NW waters by Sat morning. The front will stall from near 31N70W to near Palm Beach Florida Sat night. The front will move again on Sun morning and extend from 31N65W to 27N75W on Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen