000 AXNT20 KNHC 132332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 732 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... Minimal NE gale-force winds are expected to continue pulsing at night along the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Corresponding sea heights when winds are highest will range between 8 to 11 feet. A respite in the gales is expected Fri and Sat as low pres moving E from the United States mainland weakens the ridge over the western Atlc. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03S31W to the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 02S and 07S between 26W and 36W and S of a line from 00N36W and 00N50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A nearly stationary front extends from the Florida Keys near 25N81W to near Pensacola Florida. This boundary remains void of deep convection as deep layer ridging over the Gulf continues to suppress convection. Deep low pressure over interior Mexico has tightened the pressure gradient over the western Gulf. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected over most of the western gulf tonight and Wed as the pressure gradient tightens. Convergent low-level winds to the SE of a slow moving cold front currently inland over S Texas is presently producing broken low clouds along the coast of Texas. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Thu morning and eventually reach from near Cross City, Florida to the Bay of Campeche early on Sat. The front will then stall from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat night. Gale force winds are possible over the waters near Tampico and Veracruz Fri evening and Sat. The front will exit the SE Gulf on Sun morning and leave a surface trough over the SW gulf with strong to near gale force winds prevailing to the W of the trough axis through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds continue over the Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds focusing along the coast of Colombia. Shower coverage over this area remains minimal as strong upper-level subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and Central America continues to suppress convection. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean through Sun night, with gale force winds expected near the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Strong winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters tonight through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue across the remainder of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves SW from the central Atlantic near 32N55W to 25N61W to 23N75W, then continues as a stationary front to the Florida Keys near 25N81W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring along and up to 60 nm E of the front between 25N and 27N. Scattered moderate convection is found elsewhere along and up to 150 nm E of the front N of 23N. A surface trough precedes the front from 27N58W to 20N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen along and up to 60 nm E of the trough. A 1040 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 42N21W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the surface front. A small upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 32N42W is generating moderate to fresh trades over the tropical N Atlc between 25W and 45W. Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will shift SSE while weakening through Thu morning. High pressure following in the wake of the front will prevail through Sat. A new cold front will enter the waters NW of the Bahamas by Sat morning. The front will stall from near 31N70W to near Palm Beach, Florida Sat night. The front will move again on Sun morning and extend from 31N65W to 27N75W on Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy